JTWC Warning #20

WTPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

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WARNING POSITION:

301800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 121.7E

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FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.2N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

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24 HRS, VALID AT:

311800Z --- 14.0N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

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36 HRS, VALID AT:

010600Z --- 13.7N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS

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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

011800Z --- 13.2N 110.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS

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72 HRS, VALID AT:

021800Z --- 12.4N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

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REMARKS:

302100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 121.0E.TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MIRINAE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TS 23W HAS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON, WITH A LARGE DECREASE IN ONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301710Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF TS 23W HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE. LAND INFLUENCES
HAVE WEAKENED THE SYSTEM DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS (FROM
85 TO 55 KNOTS). TS 23W IS STILL TRACKING QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER LUZON, WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN THE TRACK SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER WILL LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO VIETNAM AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 22 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//

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