tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-342464252024-03-06T04:42:49.450+08:00Devil's ThoughtsNOTE: For official weather updates,please go to http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/, http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/, and http://www.usgs.gov/bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.comBlogger82125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-70376091673987644552011-04-07T11:44:00.000+08:002011-04-07T11:44:57.039+08:00Rebirth It's been more than two years since i posted my last entry in this blog. A lot had happened during those two years. New passions discovered. New interests developed. New friendships made. But some interests need rediscovery. Writing is one of them. Voices are too loud to be ignored. It needs to be written in words, to be read, analyzed, criticized. In those two years, the world has become even more exciting... there's just plenty of things to write about. Not just weather, or politics, or sports, or entertainment.<br />
<br />
Much will be written in the days to come. For now, i'm just glad i'm back..........bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-32102422328596636222009-11-19T09:54:00.000+08:002009-11-19T09:54:43.981+08:002 new invests in the pacific<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtwHHQd_PJvKFTc8uBTSODiPVgi8TfKyBIit7-rMyWAs6gosBDbtiBX-0buP3eXzUe4AvhrMO5NthTi2tTRVOq_dd4Rz42GwJJ8DtHuIm-61vI10_kHg3vMPtDaX3NDDXWP1JL/s1600/invest.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtwHHQd_PJvKFTc8uBTSODiPVgi8TfKyBIit7-rMyWAs6gosBDbtiBX-0buP3eXzUe4AvhrMO5NthTi2tTRVOq_dd4Rz42GwJJ8DtHuIm-61vI10_kHg3vMPtDaX3NDDXWP1JL/s320/invest.jpg" yr="true" /></a><br />
</div>ABPW10 PGTW 181830<br />
<br />
<br />
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//<br />
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND<br />
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181830Z-190600ZNOV2009//<br />
<br />
RMKS/<br />
<br />
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):<br />
<br />
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.<br />
<br />
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:<br />
<br />
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N 152.8E, <br />
APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. RECENT ANIMATED <br />
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNORGANIZED AREA OF LIMITED, <br />
MODERATE-TO-DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC <br />
TURNING. AN 180607Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A LARGE 15 TO 20 KNOT <br />
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS <br />
BROADER TURNING. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE <br />
CIRCULATION SUPPORTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION (AND TIGHTENING) OF THE <br />
LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW AND OUTFLOW HAS BEEN AIDED BY AN <br />
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AROUND 40N. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE <br />
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED <br />
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A <br />
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.<br />
<br />
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N 174.9E, <br />
APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST OF MAJURO. A 180626Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE <br />
INDICATES A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE PULSING TROUGH EASTERN MICRONESIA. <br />
HOWEVER, A MORE RECENT (181141Z TMI) MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT A <br />
WELL-DEFINED LLCC, OUTLINED BY PRONOUNCED CURVATURE OF DEEP <br />
CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, HAS EVOLVED <br />
FROM THIS WAVE. CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO BECOME <br />
INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT, AS WELL, DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD VENTING <br />
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND LOW VERTICAL WIND <br />
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 <br />
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. <br />
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE <br />
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.<br />
<br />
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.<br />
<br />
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):<br />
<br />
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.<br />
<br />
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.<br />
<br />
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED THE AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AND <br />
<br />
PARA 1.B.(2) AS FAIR.//<br />
<br />
NNNNbicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-21981636536884441822009-11-11T11:35:00.000+08:002009-11-11T11:35:53.394+08:00MAYON VOLCANO ADVISORY Nov 11, 2009<strong>MAYON VOLCANO ADVISORY</strong><br />
11 November 2009<br />
7:00 A.M.<br />
This is to notify the public and concerned authorities on the current activity of Mayon Volcano.<br />
<br />
At 1:58 AM today, an ash explosion occurred at the summit crater of Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E). This event was recorded by the seismic network as explosion type earthquake which lasted for about three minutes and accompanied by rumbling sounds. Incandescent rock fragments at the upper slope were observed in Brgy. Lidong of Sto. Domingo, Brgys. Tumpa and Anoling of Camalig. Ash column was not observed due to cloud cover. Field investigation conducted after the event showed ashfall drifted towards the Southwest quadrant of the volcano due to the prevailing Northeast monsoon. Barangays affected by traces of ashfall were brgy. Tumpa of Camalig, Brgys. Travesia, Maipon, Masarawag, Doña Tumasa, Muladbukad Grande, and Pequeño of Guinobatan, Brgys. Nabonton and Nasisi of Ligao. Light ashfall was also noted at Brgy. San Rafael of Guinobatan. For the past 24 hours, the seismic network recorded twenty (20) volcanic earthquakes.<br />
<br />
The status of Mayon Volcano remains at Alert Level 2. This means a state of unrest which could lead to more ash explosion or eventually to hazardous magmatic eruption. Thus PHIVOLCS strongly recommends that the 6-km radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) around the volcano and the 7-km Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) on the southeast flank of the volcano are off-limits due to the threat from sudden explosions and rockfalls from the upper slope. Active river channels and those areas perennially identified as lahar prone in the southeast sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather condition or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall.<br />
<br />
In case of asfall, residents in affected areas should stay indoor or cover their nose with clean wet cloth or dust mask.<br />
<br />
Any new development will be posted and relayed immediately to all concerned authorities.bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-79856152012517746522009-11-11T11:25:00.001+08:002009-11-11T11:29:21.280+08:00Mayon Volcano Alert LevelsMAYON VOLCANO ALERT LEVELS<br />
<br />
<br />
ALERT LEVEL MAIN CRITERIA INTERPRETATION/RECOMMENDATION<br />
<br />
0<br />
<br />
No Alert. Quiet. <br />
<br />
All monitored parameters within background levels. No eruption in foreseeable future. <br />
<br />
Entry in the 6-km radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) is not advised because phreatic explosions and ash puffs may occur without precursors. <br />
<br />
1<br />
<br />
Abnormal Low level unrest. <br />
<br />
Slight increase in seismicity. <br />
<br />
Slight increase in SO2 gas output above the background level. <br />
<br />
Very faint glow of the crater may occur but no conclusive evidence of magma ascent. <br />
<br />
Phreatic explosion or ash puffs may occur. No eruption imminent. <br />
<br />
Activity may be hydrothermal, magmatic or tectonic in origin.<br />
<br />
No entry in the 6-km radius PDZ.<br />
<br />
2<br />
<br />
Increasing Unrest - Moderate unrest. <br />
<br />
Low to moderate level of seismic activity.<br />
<br />
Episodes of harmonic tremor. <br />
<br />
Increasing SO2 flux. <br />
<br />
Faint / intermittent crater glow. <br />
<br />
Swelling of edifice may be detected. <br />
<br />
Confirmed reports of decrease in flow of wells and springs during rainy season. Unrest probably of magmatic origin; could eventually lead to eruption. <br />
<br />
6-km radius Danger Zone may be extended to 7 km in the sector where the crater rim is low.<br />
<br />
3<br />
<br />
Increased Tendency Towards Eruption - Relatively high unrest. <br />
<br />
Volcanic quakes and tremor may become more frequent. <br />
<br />
Further increase in SO2 flux. <br />
<br />
Occurrence of rockfalls in summit area. <br />
<br />
Vigorous steaming / sustained crater glow. <br />
<br />
Persistent swelling of edifice. Magma is close to the crater. <br />
<br />
If trend is one of increasing unrest, eruption is possible within weeks.<br />
<br />
Extension of Danger Zone in the sector where the crater rim is low will be considered.<br />
<br />
4<br />
<br />
Hazardous Eruption<br />
<br />
Imminent Intense unrest. <br />
<br />
Persistent tremor, many "low frequency"-type earthquakes. <br />
<br />
SO2 emission level may show sustained increase or abrupt decrease. <br />
<br />
Intense crater glow. Incandescent lava fragments in the summit area. Hazardous eruption is possible within days. <br />
<br />
Extension of Danger zone to 8 km or morein the sector where the crater rim is low will be recommended.<br />
<br />
5<br />
<br />
Hazardous Eruption <br />
<br />
Hazardous eruption ongoing.<br />
<br />
Occurrence of pyroclastic flows, tall eruption columns and extensive ashfall. Pyroclastic flows may sweep down along gullies and channels, especially along those fronting the low part(s) of the crater rim. <br />
<br />
Additional danger areas may be identified as eruption progresses.<br />
<br />
Danger to aircraft, by way of ash cloud encounter, depending on height of eruption column and/or wind drift.<br />
<br />
Revised 25 January 2001bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-28235904125736502672009-11-11T09:07:00.000+08:002009-11-11T09:07:58.502+08:00Magnitude 4.8 Earthquake 30 kms NW of Butuan<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDPnmf8280p-4Zu42KdkwWlXORgiZrgyjt7pj9Mr-gwFyE8hJyUX83dQMnCX5V4WcTfSdERCbmfxnSYPcOGi3Dx7OrmW0j6ERvSD1N8_HunhJ0hs8s5PqmzmW0hzSBPr8AoWvE/s1600-h/mindanao.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" sr="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDPnmf8280p-4Zu42KdkwWlXORgiZrgyjt7pj9Mr-gwFyE8hJyUX83dQMnCX5V4WcTfSdERCbmfxnSYPcOGi3Dx7OrmW0j6ERvSD1N8_HunhJ0hs8s5PqmzmW0hzSBPr8AoWvE/s320/mindanao.gif" /></a><br />
</div>Earthquake Details<br />
<br />
Magnitude 4.8 <br />
Date-Time Tuesday, November 10, 2009 at 22:27:42 UTC<br />
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 at 06:27:42 AM at epicenter <br />
<br />
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones<br />
<br />
Location 9.169°N, 125.355°E <br />
Depth 89.7 km (55.7 miles) <br />
Region MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES <br />
Distances 30 km (20 miles) NW of Butuan, Mindanao, Philippines<br />
70 km (45 miles) SSW of Surigao, Mindanao, Philippines<br />
105 km (65 miles) NE of Cagayan de Oro, Mindanao, Philippines<br />
770 km (475 miles) SE of MANILA, Philippines<br />
<br />
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.1 km (8.1 miles); depth +/- 16.5 km (10.3 miles) <br />
<br />
Parameters NST= 26, Nph= 26, Dmin=233.8 km, Rmss=0.85 sec, Gp=112°,<br />
<br />
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6 <br />
<br />
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-472433028225191442009-11-08T23:23:00.000+08:002009-11-08T23:23:31.646+08:00Earthquake -Magnitude 4.5 - Philippine Island Region<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzj7JW2y65_GMm17lWRXvULRdxyXtGdP9F8X5d6jQlhFiv8eIoJSSKE9W1pei7sgYOzW84V3yvDCTGf6eZ8caiRMl2rafiEREUCT9T8cuRKOOwfkTWa5nMlMrClv09A9oMEnRX/s1600-h/sunday.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" sr="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzj7JW2y65_GMm17lWRXvULRdxyXtGdP9F8X5d6jQlhFiv8eIoJSSKE9W1pei7sgYOzW84V3yvDCTGf6eZ8caiRMl2rafiEREUCT9T8cuRKOOwfkTWa5nMlMrClv09A9oMEnRX/s320/sunday.gif" /></a><br />
</div>Magnitude 4.5 <br />
Date-Time Sunday, November 08, 2009 at 10:37:39 UTC<br />
Sunday, November 08, 2009 at 06:37:39 PM at epicenter <br />
<br />
Location 10.437°N, 127.410°E <br />
Depth 35 km (21.7 miles) set by location program <br />
<br />
Region PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION <br />
<br />
Distances 195 km (121 miles) ESE (110°) from Guiuan, Samar, Philippines<br />
<br />
223 km (139 miles) ENE (71°) from Surigao, Mindanao, Philippines<br />
<br />
264 km (164 miles) NNE (27°) from Hinatuan, Mindanao, Philippines<br />
<br />
840 km (522 miles) ESE (123°) from MANILA, Philippines<br />
<br />
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 10.8 km (6.7 miles); depth fixed by location program <br />
<br />
Parameters NST= 21, Nph= 21, Dmin=423.4 km, Rmss=0.8 sec, Gp=137°,<br />
<br />
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=Q <br />
<br />
Source U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:<br />
<br />
World Data Center for Seismology, Denverbicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-7843512618366873202009-11-04T16:55:00.000+08:002009-11-04T16:55:10.636+08:00Magnitude 5.6 earthquake near DavaoMagnitude 5.6 <br />
Date-Time Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 06:21:46 UTC<br />
Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 02:21:46 PM at epicenter <br />
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones<br />
<br />
Location 7.115°N, 126.606°E <br />
<br />
Depth 110.2 km (68.5 miles) <br />
<br />
Region MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES <br />
<br />
Distances 105 km (65 miles) E of Davao, Mindanao, Philippines<br />
<br />
140 km (85 miles) SSE of Hinatuan, Mindanao, Philippines<br />
<br />
190 km (120 miles) NE of General Santos, Mindanao, Philippines<br />
<br />
1035 km (640 miles) SE of MANILA, Philippines<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 10.1 km (6.3 miles); depth +/- 13.6 km (8.5 miles) <br />
<br />
Parameters NST= 44, Nph= 44, Dmin=113.6 km, Rmss=1.05 sec, Gp=115°,<br />
<br />
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7 <br />
<br />
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-6503480427300830562009-11-03T08:57:00.000+08:002009-11-03T08:57:28.660+08:00JTWC Warning #1 for Tropical Depression 24W (Tino)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_FkyjXpso4scNCrpi0vF74fZV_6mAV7sXXk-3NLjFIVKu2UHnEH-60p3TkWWy6UKsuTJ8QEHgmiprGmiH4r9Rb3CH58iB1ReW651iF_52qrbbTe0Af6dpZ5lSInRjToG24qAo/s1600-h/tino4.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_FkyjXpso4scNCrpi0vF74fZV_6mAV7sXXk-3NLjFIVKu2UHnEH-60p3TkWWy6UKsuTJ8QEHgmiprGmiH4r9Rb3CH58iB1ReW651iF_52qrbbTe0Af6dpZ5lSInRjToG24qAo/s320/tino4.gif" vr="true" /></a><br />
</div><br />
<strong>WTPN31 PGTW 022100</strong><br />
<strong>MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//</strong><br />
<strong>SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//</strong><br />
<strong>REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022151ZNOV09//</strong><br />
<br />
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//<br />
<br />
RMKS/<br />
<br />
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001 <br />
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
---<br />
WARNING POSITION:<br />
<br />
021800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 124.0E<br />
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 12 KTS<br />
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM<br />
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE<br />
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:<br />
<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 124.0E<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
FORECASTS:<br />
<br />
12 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
030600Z --- 13.5N 122.4E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND<br />
<br />
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
24 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
031800Z --- 12.8N 120.9E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND<br />
<br />
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
36 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
040600Z --- 12.6N 119.0E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
REMARKS:<br />
<br />
022100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 123.6E.TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (TWENTY FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO WANE AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED. ADDITIONALLY, THE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING MORE EXPOSED AND IS DRIFTING SOUTH WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE COMING OFF THE ASIAN LAND MASS. DESPITE THE DECREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION, AN AMBUIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE 021004Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A DISCERNABLE LLCC WITH 25- TO 30-KNOT WINDS AND <br />
A 021333Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES WARNING-LEVEL WINDS STARTING TO WRAP <br />
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. OF NOTE, THE QUIKSCAT PASS <br />
ALSO INDICATES STRONG WINDS (40 TO 50 KNOTS) AND HIGHER SEAS (23 <br />
FEET) NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE. <br />
TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE <br />
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER LUZON <br />
BEFORE DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. THIS <br />
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 012151ZNOV09 <br />
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 012200). MAXIMUM <br />
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT <br />
030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-46519285389102878722009-11-03T08:51:00.000+08:002009-11-03T08:51:06.710+08:00PAG-ASA Bulletin #3 TINO<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSOyGvcTjveIAAL-K3E-ZlGcsgqQV3SMRUnYXtq4AeZ-MyqFofH7_QJdxTvrcjUGt32CWfqTob1C9Qr31dxnJzcpZAsSJphaCxG3lO8a9ybWVuSahGDDPO30XrxFI6yMRSQP2q/s1600-h/tino3.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSOyGvcTjveIAAL-K3E-ZlGcsgqQV3SMRUnYXtq4AeZ-MyqFofH7_QJdxTvrcjUGt32CWfqTob1C9Qr31dxnJzcpZAsSJphaCxG3lO8a9ybWVuSahGDDPO30XrxFI6yMRSQP2q/s320/tino3.gif" vr="true" /></a><br />
</div><strong>Severe Weather Bulletin Number THREE</strong><br />
<strong>Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "TINO"</strong><br />
<strong>Issued at 5:00 a.m., Tuesday, 03 November 2009</strong> <br />
<br />
Tropical Depression "TINO" has maintained its strength as it moves closer to Central Luzon. <br />
Location of Center:(as of 4:00 a.m.) 150 kms East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora<br />
Coordinates: 17.0°N, 123.5°E <br />
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near center<br />
Movement: West Southwest at 11 kph<br />
<br />
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Wednesday morning:<br />
in the vicinity of Baguio City<br />
<br />
Thursday morning:<br />
200 kms West of Dagupan City<br />
<br />
Friday morning:<br />
460 kms West Southwest of Dagupan City <br />
<br />
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal <br />
<br />
Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds) <br />
Isabela<br />
Mt Province<br />
Ifugao<br />
Benguet<br />
Nueva Vizcaya<br />
Quirino<br />
La Union<br />
Pangasinan<br />
Nueva Ecija<br />
Aurora<br />
Public storm warning signals elsewhere now lowered. <br />
<br />
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides. <br />
<br />
The rest of Northern Luzon will have occasional rains and gusty winds due to the surge of the northeast monsoon. <br />
<br />
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-42340812530525305962009-11-02T23:45:00.001+08:002009-11-02T23:49:24.276+08:00Personal Notes on Tino<div style="text-align: justify;">Tropical depression Tino came right after Santi (No pun intended. Santi -Tino). Pag-asa has already elevated this to tropical depression status and has already issued 2 bulletins. Other international weather agencies however have yet to issue their own bulletins. JTWC is only issuing a tropical cyclone formation alert (which i have posted here). The area where this is located at the moment is not conducive to the development of typhoons. More likely, Tino will have a burst of strength for a brief period of time but will immediately die down. One thing for sure though, Tino will bring rain along its path and therefore residents in danger of flooding and landslide should continue monitoring Tino's development.<br />
</div><br />
Note: <em><strong>The blogger is not a professional meteorologist. For official analysis, please check Pag-asa advisories.</strong></em>bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-22350960845711229002009-11-02T23:17:00.000+08:002009-11-02T23:17:00.270+08:00PAG-ASA Bulletin #2 TINO<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-boAW8aKdNpRn2xH9tEnaZi2ACJryoGTkcnWD5_jPKgyAmjXdATI_gq0ChghKDPzZxPsvxF__k9Cp-wk3qbHFUQjqKBGV84bbHHRbogMX_eSxPH_R30d2KyKEv5oGCuZuzUH8/s1600-h/tino2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-boAW8aKdNpRn2xH9tEnaZi2ACJryoGTkcnWD5_jPKgyAmjXdATI_gq0ChghKDPzZxPsvxF__k9Cp-wk3qbHFUQjqKBGV84bbHHRbogMX_eSxPH_R30d2KyKEv5oGCuZuzUH8/s320/tino2.gif" vr="true" /></a><br />
</div><br />
<strong>Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO</strong><br />
<strong>Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "TINO"</strong><br />
<strong>Issued at 11:00 p.m., Monday, 02 November 2009</strong> <br />
<br />
Tropical Depression "TINO" has maintained its strength as it moves towards Northern Luzon. <br />
Location of Center:(as of 10:00 p.m.) 200 kms East of Tuguegarao City<br />
Coordinates: 17.3°N, 123.9°E <br />
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near center<br />
Movement: West at 11 kph<br />
<br />
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday evening:<br />
<br />
90 kms East Southeast of Vigan City<br />
<br />
Wednesday evening:<br />
<br />
170 kms West of Vigan City<br />
<br />
Thursday evening:<br />
<br />
460 kms West Northwest of Baguio City<br />
<br />
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal <br />
<br />
Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds) <br />
Batanes group<br />
Cagayan<br />
Babuyan<br />
Calayan islands<br />
Apayao<br />
Kalinga<br />
Mt. Province<br />
Ifugao<br />
Isabela<br />
Quirino<br />
Northern Aurora<br />
<br />
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides. <br />
<br />
However, the rest of Northern Luzon will have occasional rains and gusty winds due to the surge of the Northeast monsoon.<br />
<br />
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-87220634466398420252009-11-02T23:13:00.000+08:002009-11-02T23:13:27.460+08:00JTWC Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21<div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl3TCHvEQqjlxqqB1H_WRPgClH3Ffcu6Q43m4YUKvoKKvEFIOS6ToOQIoAPYlz8GjenPEruhCcqVbwAmvkloGxntwWA-vjyWbaOH3z87L7YguI0iouCyn3dOkcNM-3Hn6VHF4q/s1600-h/tino1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl3TCHvEQqjlxqqB1H_WRPgClH3Ffcu6Q43m4YUKvoKKvEFIOS6ToOQIoAPYlz8GjenPEruhCcqVbwAmvkloGxntwWA-vjyWbaOH3z87L7YguI0iouCyn3dOkcNM-3Hn6VHF4q/s320/tino1.gif" vr="true" /></a><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">WTPN21 PGTW 012200<br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//<br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//<br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">RMKS/<br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 127.2E TO 19.0N 122.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 012030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 126.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.<br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
<br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 17.8N 126.3E, APPROXIMATELY360 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS PERSISTED OVER THEPAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC HAS BEENFUELING THE RECENT INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 011215Z ASCAT PASSSHOWED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC WERE BEINGENHANCED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE EAST CHINA SEA (ECS) ANDWERE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLYFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE DECREASING AS THE LLCC TRACKS TOTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 28 CELSIUS WITHIN THENEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY HELPTO SPIN THE SYSTEM UP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE LLCCMOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. THE INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEASTERLYCOLD SURGE OCCURRING OVER THE ECS WILL MAKE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALQUESTIONABLE IN THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER IN THE SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE. BASED ON INCREASING LLCC ORGANIZATION, FAVORABLE UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST VALUES, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.<br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY <br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">022200Z.//<br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">NNNN<br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div>bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-83343929847773484232009-11-01T04:24:00.000+08:002009-11-01T04:24:13.173+08:00Developing Tropical cyclone Alert<div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg" vr="true" width="320" /></a><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.6N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 660 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310919Z QUIKSCAT PASS HAD INDICATED A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC WITH UNFLAGGED WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS, CONFIRMED BY AN OBSERVATION, NEAR THE LLCC, SHOWING 18 KNOTS WITH A 1008.2 MB SURFACE PRESSURE. CONVECTION HAS ONLY BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY DURING NIGHTTIME COOLING PHASES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT BY A MID-LATITUDE JET THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING DEPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN CHINA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY AT MODERATE VALUES OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 TO 29 CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON INCREASING CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LLCC, BUT MODERATE LEVELS OF VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.<br />
</div>bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-29588352557057337132009-10-31T12:11:00.000+08:002009-10-31T12:11:02.159+08:00PAG-ASA Bulletin #11<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/track.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/track.gif" vr="true" width="320" /></a><br />
</div>Severe Weather Bulletin Number ELEVEN<br />
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)<br />
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Saturday, 31 October 2009 <br />
<br />
Typhoon "SANTI" is now in the vicinity of Lubang Island and moving towards the South China Sea. <br />
Location of Center:<br />
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 120 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila<br />
Coordinates: 13.8°N, 119.9°E <br />
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center<br />
and gustiness of up to 150 kph<br />
Movement: West Southwest at 22 kph<br />
<br />
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday morning:<br />
630 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila<br />
<br />
Sunday evening:<br />
840 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila orover the South China Sea<br />
<br />
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal <br />
<br />
Signal No.3(100-185 kph winds)<br />
Lubang Island<br />
Northern Section of Mindoro <br />
Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)<br />
Bataan<br />
Cavite<br />
Batangas<br />
Rest of Mindoro<br />
Calamian Group<br />
Metro Manila <br />
Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds) <br />
Zambales<br />
Tarlac<br />
Pampanga<br />
Bulacan<br />
Rizal<br />
Laguna<br />
Quezon<br />
Marinduque<br />
Northern Palawan <br />
<br />
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered. <br />
<br />
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides. <br />
<br />
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon. <br />
<br />
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-10708444165379406502009-10-31T10:52:00.000+08:002009-10-31T10:52:16.973+08:00Magnitude 4.9 - LUZON, PHILIPPINES<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIeRmrUSOCb4ZHPHuMfHj1G1Z7iDwm4PAgMa5flN8zGmgwHLLx4su8YalfCwhXKGgeBmhjmbOZvwLOAtOSkGdmyl26N8oN8W87HbU38guZjSK7Qy8sBp11VKNSjxGUjz2jTT3K/s1600-h/neic_nkad.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIeRmrUSOCb4ZHPHuMfHj1G1Z7iDwm4PAgMa5flN8zGmgwHLLx4su8YalfCwhXKGgeBmhjmbOZvwLOAtOSkGdmyl26N8oN8W87HbU38guZjSK7Qy8sBp11VKNSjxGUjz2jTT3K/s320/neic_nkad.jpg" vr="true" /></a><br />
</div>Magnitude 4.9 <br />
Date-Time Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 00:07:43 UTC<br />
Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 08:07:43 AM at epicenter <br />
<br />
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones<br />
<br />
<strong>Location 15.038°N, 120.007°E </strong><br />
<strong>Depth 78.7 km (48.9 miles) </strong><br />
<strong>Region LUZON, PHILIPPINES</strong> <br />
<br />
Distances 40 km (25 miles) NW of Olongapo, Luzon, Philippines<br />
<br />
60 km (35 miles) WSW of Angeles, Luzon, Philippines<br />
<br />
115 km (70 miles) WNW of MANILA, Philippines<br />
<br />
115 km (70 miles) WSW of Cabanatuan, Luzon, Philippines<br />
<br />
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 16.6 km (10.3 miles); depth +/- 10.3 km (6.4 miles) <br />
<br />
Parameters NST= 40, Nph= 42, Dmin=868.3 km, Rmss=1.28 sec, Gp=101°,<br />
<br />
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6 <br />
<br />
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-22134396135392110162009-10-31T09:31:00.000+08:002009-10-31T09:31:31.114+08:00JTWC Warning #21<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2309.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="223" src="http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2309.gif" vr="true" width="320" /></a><br />
</div><br />
WTPN32 PGTW 310300<br />
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//<br />
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//<br />
<br />
RMKS/<br />
<br />
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 021 <br />
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
---<br />
WARNING POSITION:<br />
<br />
310000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 120.2E<br />
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS<br />
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM<br />
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE<br />
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT<br />
<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 120.2E<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
FORECASTS:<br />
<br />
12 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
311200Z --- 13.9N 117.4E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
24 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
010000Z --- 13.7N 114.6E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
36 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
011200Z --- 13.3N 111.8E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:<br />
<br />
48 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
020000Z --- 12.9N 109.5E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
72 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
030000Z --- 12.1N 107.0E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
REMARKS:<br />
<br />
310300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 119.5E.TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.//<br />
<br />
NNNNbicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-73653046904692546242009-10-31T09:27:00.000+08:002009-10-31T09:27:06.551+08:00JMA Bulletin at 00:45 UTC Oct. 31, 2009<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/images/zooml/0921-00.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/images/zooml/0921-00.png" vr="true" width="320" /></a><br />
</div><br />
<br />
<strong>STS 0921 (Mirinae)</strong><br />
<strong>Issued at 00:45 UTC, 31 October 2009 </strong><br />
<strong><br />
</strong><br />
<strong>Analyses at 31/00 UTC</strong><br />
Scale - <br />
Intensity - <br />
Center position N14°05'(14.1°) <br />
E120°25'(120.4°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt) <br />
Central pressure 980hPa <br />
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt) <br />
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt) <br />
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 60km(30NM) <br />
Area of 30kt winds or more N300km(160NM) <br />
S190km(100NM) <br />
<br />
<strong>Forecast for 01/00 UTC</strong> <br />
Intensity - <br />
Center position of probability circle N13°50'(13.8°) <br />
E115°05'(115.1°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt) <br />
Central pressure 980hPa <br />
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt) <br />
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt) <br />
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM) <br />
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM) <br />
<br />
<strong>Forecast for 02/00 UTC</strong><br />
Intensity - <br />
Center position of probability circle N12°25'(12.4°) <br />
E109°55'(109.9°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt) <br />
Central pressure 980hPa <br />
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt) <br />
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt) <br />
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM) <br />
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM) <br />
<br />
<strong>Forecast for 03/00 UTC</strong> <br />
Intensity - <br />
TD <br />
Center position of probability circle N10°20'(10.3°) <br />
E104°50'(104.8°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(14kt) <br />
Central pressure 1006hPa <br />
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-72781619437998356302009-10-31T09:17:00.000+08:002009-10-31T09:17:30.143+08:00JTWC Warning #20<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2309.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="223" src="http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2309.gif" vr="true" width="320" /></a><br />
</div><br />
WTPN32 PGTW 302100<br />
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//<br />
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//<br />
<br />
RMKS/<br />
<br />
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 020 <br />
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 23W<br />
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
WARNING POSITION:<br />
<br />
301800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 121.7E<br />
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS<br />
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM<br />
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE<br />
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:<br />
<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 121.7E<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
FORECASTS:<br />
<br />
12 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
310600Z --- 14.2N 119.0E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
24 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
311800Z --- 14.0N 116.2E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
36 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
010600Z --- 13.7N 113.4E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:<br />
<br />
48 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
011800Z --- 13.2N 110.3E<br />
<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
72 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
021800Z --- 12.4N 107.3E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
REMARKS:<br />
<br />
302100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 121.0E.TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MIRINAE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TS 23W HAS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON, WITH A LARGE DECREASE IN ONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301710Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF TS 23W HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE. LAND INFLUENCES <br />
HAVE WEAKENED THE SYSTEM DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS (FROM <br />
85 TO 55 KNOTS). TS 23W IS STILL TRACKING QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER LUZON, WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN THE TRACK SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER WILL LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO VIETNAM AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 22 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//<br />
<br />
NNNNbicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-50549209171136024692009-10-31T09:01:00.000+08:002009-10-31T09:01:29.713+08:00PAG-ASA Bulletin #10<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/track.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="239" src="http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/track.gif" vr="true" width="320" /></a><br />
</div>Severe Weather Bulletin Number TEN<br />
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)<br />
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Saturday, 31 October 2009 <br />
<br />
Typhoon "SANTI" is now traversing Southern Tagalog and has weakened slightly. <br />
Location of Center:<br />
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 60 kms South Southeast of Metro Manila<br />
Coordinates: 14.0°N, 121.3°E <br />
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 130 kph near the center<br />
and gustiness of up to 160 kph<br />
Movement: West Southwest at 24 kph<br />
<br />
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday morning:<br />
510 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila or<br />
<br />
Sunday afternoon:<br />
770 kms West West of Calapan, Oriental MIndoro or<br />
over the South China Sea<br />
<br />
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal <br />
<br />
Signal No.3<br />
<br />
(100-185 kph winds)<br />
Bataan<br />
Rizal<br />
Laguna<br />
Cavite<br />
Batangas<br />
Oriental Mindoro<br />
Occidental Mindoro<br />
Lubang Island<br />
Metro Manila <br />
<br />
Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)<br />
Pampanga<br />
Bulacan<br />
Quezon<br />
Polillo Island<br />
Camarines Norte<br />
Camarines Sur<br />
Catanduanes<br />
Marinduque<br />
Romblon<br />
Calamian Group <br />
<br />
Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds) <br />
Zambales<br />
Tarlac<br />
Nueva Ecija<br />
Aurora<br />
Albay<br />
Burias Island<br />
Northern Palawan Northern Panay <br />
<br />
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered. <br />
<br />
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides. <br />
<br />
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon. <br />
<br />
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-24064922601491065752009-10-31T03:00:00.000+08:002009-10-31T03:00:06.775+08:00JMA Bulletin at 18:45 UTC Oct. 30, 2009<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAFO6qP4JyTsYCOplT81XKr_GuutvA5_V7N1nUOM7yiPkmNWrq7Oubu6FxrdG9X00gPeMoHDciS7iLdKDVfODt1q4ZdWbS1d99tfjnHjLwPlw-igNPZYPBIO4xIwSAJGEr5HL5/s1600-h/good+track.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAFO6qP4JyTsYCOplT81XKr_GuutvA5_V7N1nUOM7yiPkmNWrq7Oubu6FxrdG9X00gPeMoHDciS7iLdKDVfODt1q4ZdWbS1d99tfjnHjLwPlw-igNPZYPBIO4xIwSAJGEr5HL5/s320/good+track.png" vr="true" /></a><br />
</div><br />
<br />
<strong>STS 0921 (Mirinae)</strong><br />
<strong>Issued at 18:45 UTC, 30 October 2009</strong> <br />
<br />
<strong>Analyses at 30/18 UTC</strong><br />
Scale - <br />
Intensity - <br />
Center position N14°10'(14.2°) <br />
E121°40'(121.7°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement WSW 30km/h(15kt) <br />
Central pressure 980hPa <br />
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt) <br />
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt) <br />
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 60km(30NM) <br />
Area of 30kt winds or more N300km(160NM) <br />
S190km(100NM) <br />
<br />
<strong>Forecast for 31/18 UTC</strong><br />
Intensity - <br />
Center position of probability circle N13°55'(13.9°) <br />
E116°25'(116.4°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt) <br />
Central pressure 980hPa <br />
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt) <br />
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt) <br />
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM) <br />
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM) <br />
<br />
<strong>Forecast for 01/18 UTC</strong> <br />
Intensity - <br />
Center position of probability circle N12°55'(12.9°) <br />
E111°35'(111.6°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt) <br />
Central pressure 980hPa <br />
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt) <br />
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt) <br />
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM) <br />
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM) <br />
<br />
<strong>Forecast for 02/18 UTC</strong> <br />
Intensity - <br />
TD <br />
Center position of probability circle N11°10'(11.2°) <br />
E106°40'(106.7°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(13kt) <br />
Central pressure 1004hPa <br />
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-79780846535292044062009-10-30T23:29:00.000+08:002009-10-30T23:29:26.459+08:00PAG-ASA Bulletin #9<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/track.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="244" src="http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/track.gif" vr="true" width="320" /></a><br />
</div>Severe Weather Bulletin Number NINE<br />
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)<br />
<br />
Issued at 10:45 p.m., Friday, 30 October 2009 <br />
<br />
Typhoon "SANTI" is moving closer to Camarines Norte-Quezon Area. <br />
Location of Center:<br />
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 30 kms North of Daet, Camarines Norte<br />
Coordinates: 14.3°N, 123.2°E <br />
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center<br />
and gustiness of up to 185 kph<br />
Movement: West Southwest at 20 kph<br />
<br />
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday evening:<br />
260 kms Southwest of Metro Manila or<br />
230 kms West Southwest of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro<br />
<br />
Sunday evening:<br />
700 kms West Southwest of Calapan, Oriental MIndoro or<br />
over the South China Sea<br />
<br />
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal <br />
<br />
Signal No.3(100-185 kph winds) <br />
Quezon<br />
Polillo island<br />
Bulacan<br />
Bataan<br />
Rizal<br />
Cavite<br />
Laguna<br />
Batangas<br />
Oriental Mindoro<br />
Occidental Mindoro<br />
Lubang Island<br />
Marinduque<br />
Camarines Norte<br />
Camarines Sur<br />
Catanduanes<br />
Metro Manila<br />
<br />
Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)<br />
Aurora<br />
Quirino<br />
Nueva Ecija<br />
Tarlac<br />
Pampanga<br />
Zambales<br />
Albay<br />
Romblon<br />
Calamian Group<br />
Burias Island<br />
Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds) <br />
Isabela<br />
Ifugao<br />
Nueva Vizcaya<br />
Benguet<br />
La Union<br />
Pangasinan<br />
Sorsogon<br />
Masbate<br />
Ticao Island<br />
Northern Palawan<br />
Northern Samar<br />
Northern Panay<br />
<br />
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides. <br />
<br />
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon. <br />
<br />
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-64836815353798027112009-10-30T22:29:00.000+08:002009-10-30T22:29:00.842+08:00JMA Bulletin at 12:45 UTC Oct. 30, 2009<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT6nH0nVWUbCfDwZ2AplsM26U0xX31LXXhT-48gM0Pw61GtbDDSTNTf5t_R-r1eugL4TDzvgWGr_U5nYUJAO8Nrei4zNy2QRloXRKhru_WLmh5C6ZKLWlrE3RYL4RuEbGopL9L/s1600-h/30tenpm+post.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT6nH0nVWUbCfDwZ2AplsM26U0xX31LXXhT-48gM0Pw61GtbDDSTNTf5t_R-r1eugL4TDzvgWGr_U5nYUJAO8Nrei4zNy2QRloXRKhru_WLmh5C6ZKLWlrE3RYL4RuEbGopL9L/s320/30tenpm+post.png" vr="true" /></a><br />
</div><br />
<br />
<strong>TY 0921 (Mirinae)</strong><br />
<strong>Issued at 12:45 UTC, 30 October 2009</strong> <br />
<br />
<strong>Analyses at 30/12 UTC</strong><br />
Scale -<br />
Intensity Strong <br />
Center position N14°40'(14.7°) <br />
E123°30'(123.5°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt) <br />
Central pressure 970hPa <br />
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt) <br />
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt) <br />
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM) <br />
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM) <br />
S220km(120NM) <br />
<br />
<strong>Forecast for 31/12 UTC</strong> <br />
Intensity - <br />
Center position of probability circle N14°20'(14.3°) <br />
E118°25'(118.4°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt) <br />
Central pressure 980hPa <br />
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt) <br />
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt) <br />
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM) <br />
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM) <br />
<br />
<strong>Forecast for 01/12 UTC</strong> <br />
Intensity - <br />
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°) <br />
E113°35'(113.6°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt) <br />
Central pressure 980hPa <br />
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt) <br />
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt) <br />
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM) <br />
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM) <br />
<br />
<strong>Forecast for 02/12 UTC</strong><br />
Intensity - TD <br />
Center position of probability circle N11°50'(11.8°) <br />
E108°00'(108.0°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(14kt) <br />
Central pressure 1000hPa <br />
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-1402947730109177982009-10-30T21:59:00.000+08:002009-10-30T21:59:19.471+08:00JTWC Warning #19<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2309.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="217" src="http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2309.gif" vr="true" width="320" /></a><br />
</div><br />
WTPN32 PGTW 301500<br />
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//<br />
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//<br />
<br />
RMKS/<br />
<br />
1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 019 <br />
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
---<br />
<br />
WARNING POSITION:<br />
<br />
301200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 123.3E<br />
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS<br />
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM<br />
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE<br />
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 123.3E<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
FORECASTS:<br />
<br />
12 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
310000Z --- 14.5N 120.8E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
24 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
311200Z --- 14.4N 118.1E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
36 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
010000Z --- 14.2N 115.4E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:<br />
48 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
011200Z --- 13.9N 112.4E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
<br />
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT<br />
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT<br />
<br />
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
72 HRS, VALID AT:<br />
<br />
021200Z --- 13.2N 107.7E<br />
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT<br />
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY<br />
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
REMARKS:<br />
<br />
TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST OF MANILA,<br />
PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST<br />
SIX HOURS. 301500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 122.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT<br />
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z,<br />
<br />
310900Z AND 311500Z.//<br />
<br />
NNNNbicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-27951308981355597722009-10-30T18:02:00.000+08:002009-10-30T18:02:53.707+08:00JMA Bulletin at 09:45 UTC Oct. 29, 2009<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhciWkRR_0En0oZgQyCtT0JpZ6tHQCVN0G3BuRP4YGwlKpgqg8B7nokmpJsl-RG3JZJ1wNZtamCh7CpAmMSRTwwmFXdmdyj9dpXs3Yc_YjzVOH9eu7NhrQcBCA8co_8Is9hN_fj/s1600-h/30eveningpost.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" sr="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhciWkRR_0En0oZgQyCtT0JpZ6tHQCVN0G3BuRP4YGwlKpgqg8B7nokmpJsl-RG3JZJ1wNZtamCh7CpAmMSRTwwmFXdmdyj9dpXs3Yc_YjzVOH9eu7NhrQcBCA8co_8Is9hN_fj/s320/30eveningpost.png" /></a><br />
</div><strong>TY 0921 (Mirinae)</strong><br />
<strong>Issued at 09:45 UTC, 30 October 2009 </strong><br />
<strong>Analyses at 30/09 UTC</strong> <br />
<br />
Scale - <br />
Intensity <strong>Strong </strong><br />
Center position N14°40'(14.7°) <br />
E124°05'(124.1°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt) <br />
Central pressure 965hPa <br />
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt) <br />
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt) <br />
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM) <br />
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM) <br />
S220km(120NM) <br />
<br />
<strong>Forecast for 31/09 UTC</strong> <br />
Intensity - <br />
Center position of probability circle N14°30'(14.5°) <br />
E119°05'(119.1°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt) <br />
Central pressure 980hPa <br />
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt) <br />
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt) <br />
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM) <br />
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM) <br />
<br />
<strong>Forecast for 01/06 UTC</strong><br />
Intensity - <br />
Center position of probability circle N14°20'(14.3°) <br />
E114°30'(114.5°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt) <br />
Central pressure 980hPa <br />
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt) <br />
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt) <br />
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM) <br />
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM) <br />
<br />
<strong>Forecast for 02/06 UTC</strong> <br />
Intensity - <br />
Center position of probability circle N13°00'(13.0°) <br />
E109°00'(109.0°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt) <br />
Central pressure 990hPa <br />
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt) <br />
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt) <br />
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM) <br />
<br />
<strong>Forecast for 03/06 UTC</strong> <br />
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)<br />
E105°35'(105.6°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(9kt) <br />
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM) <br />
<br />
<strong>Forecast for 04/06 UTC</strong><br />
Center position of probability circle N10°50'(10.8°) <br />
E102°20'(102.3°) <br />
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(9kt) <br />
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34246425.post-75432205715412229252009-10-30T17:31:00.000+08:002009-10-30T17:31:35.522+08:00PAG-ASA Bulletin #8<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/track.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="243" sr="true" src="http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/track.gif" width="320" /></a><br />
</div><strong>Severe Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT</strong><br />
<strong>Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)</strong><br />
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Friday, 30 October 2009 <br />
Typhoon "SANTI" is now approaching Quezon province. <br />
Location of Center:<br />
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 230 kms East of Infanta, Quezon<br />
Coordinates: 14.8°N, 124.1°E <br />
<br />
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center<br />
and gustiness of up to 185 kph<br />
<br />
Movement: West Southwest at 24 kph<br />
<br />
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday afternoon:<br />
220 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila<br />
<br />
Sunday afternoon:<br />
760 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila or<br />
over the South China Sea<br />
<br />
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal <br />
<br />
Signal No.3<br />
<br />
(100-185 kph winds) <br />
Quezon<br />
Polillo island<br />
Bulacan<br />
Bataan<br />
Rizal<br />
Cavite<br />
Laguna<br />
Batangas<br />
Oriental Mindoro<br />
Lubang Island<br />
Marinduque<br />
Camarines Norte<br />
Camarines Sur<br />
Catanduanes<br />
Metro Manila<br />
<br />
Signal No. 2<br />
(60-100 kph winds) <br />
Aurora<br />
Quirino<br />
Nueva Ecija<br />
Tarlac<br />
Pampanga<br />
Zambales<br />
Occidental Mindoro<br />
Albay<br />
Burias Island<br />
<br />
Signal No. 1<br />
(30-60 kph winds) <br />
Isabela<br />
Ifugao<br />
Nueva Vizcaya<br />
Benguet<br />
La Union<br />
Pangasinan<br />
Sorsogon<br />
Masbate<br />
Romblon<br />
Calamian Group<br />
Northern Samar<br />
Northern Panay<br />
<br />
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides. <br />
<br />
Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon. <br />
<br />
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.bicolano_devilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16942365785851333206noreply@blogger.com0