Saturday, October 31, 2009

PAG-ASA Bulletin #11


Severe Weather Bulletin Number ELEVEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Saturday, 31 October 2009

Typhoon "SANTI" is now in the vicinity of Lubang Island and moving towards the South China Sea.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 120 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila
Coordinates: 13.8°N, 119.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 150 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday morning:
630 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila

Sunday evening:
840 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila orover the South China Sea

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3(100-185 kph winds)
 Lubang Island
Northern Section of Mindoro
Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)
 Bataan
Cavite
Batangas
Rest of Mindoro
Calamian Group
Metro Manila
Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Zambales
Tarlac
Pampanga
Bulacan
Rizal
Laguna
Quezon
Marinduque
Northern Palawan

Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

Magnitude 4.9 - LUZON, PHILIPPINES


Magnitude 4.9
Date-Time Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 00:07:43 UTC
Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 08:07:43 AM at epicenter

Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 15.038°N, 120.007°E
Depth 78.7 km (48.9 miles)
Region LUZON, PHILIPPINES

Distances 40 km (25 miles) NW of Olongapo, Luzon, Philippines

60 km (35 miles) WSW of Angeles, Luzon, Philippines

115 km (70 miles) WNW of MANILA, Philippines

115 km (70 miles) WSW of Cabanatuan, Luzon, Philippines

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 16.6 km (10.3 miles); depth +/- 10.3 km (6.4 miles)

Parameters NST= 40, Nph= 42, Dmin=868.3 km, Rmss=1.28 sec, Gp=101°,

M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6

Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

JTWC Warning #21



WTPN32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

310000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 120.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 120.2E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 13.9N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 13.7N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

011200Z --- 13.3N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.9N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

030000Z --- 12.1N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

310300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 119.5E.TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.//

NNNN

JMA Bulletin at 00:45 UTC Oct. 31, 2009




STS 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 31 October 2009


Analyses at 31/00 UTC
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°05'(14.1°)
E120°25'(120.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N300km(160NM)
S190km(100NM)

Forecast for 01/00 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°50'(13.8°)
E115°05'(115.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)

Forecast for 02/00 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°25'(12.4°)
E109°55'(109.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 03/00 UTC
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N10°20'(10.3°)
E104°50'(104.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

JTWC Warning #20



WTPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

301800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 121.7E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.2N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

311800Z --- 14.0N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

010600Z --- 13.7N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

011800Z --- 13.2N 110.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

021800Z --- 12.4N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

302100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 121.0E.TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MIRINAE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TS 23W HAS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON, WITH A LARGE DECREASE IN ONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301710Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF TS 23W HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE. LAND INFLUENCES
HAVE WEAKENED THE SYSTEM DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS (FROM
85 TO 55 KNOTS). TS 23W IS STILL TRACKING QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER LUZON, WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN THE TRACK SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER WILL LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO VIETNAM AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 22 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//

NNNN

PAG-ASA Bulletin #10


Severe Weather Bulletin Number TEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Saturday, 31 October 2009

Typhoon "SANTI" is now traversing Southern Tagalog and has weakened slightly.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 60 kms South Southeast of Metro Manila
Coordinates: 14.0°N, 121.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 130 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 160 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 24 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday morning:
510 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila or

Sunday afternoon:
770 kms West West of Calapan, Oriental MIndoro or
over the South China Sea

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3

(100-185 kph winds)
 Bataan
Rizal
Laguna
Cavite
Batangas
Oriental Mindoro
Occidental Mindoro
Lubang Island
Metro Manila

Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)
 Pampanga
Bulacan
Quezon
Polillo Island
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Marinduque
Romblon
Calamian Group

Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Zambales
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Aurora
Albay
Burias Island
Northern Palawan Northern Panay

Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

JMA Bulletin at 18:45 UTC Oct. 30, 2009




STS 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 30 October 2009

Analyses at 30/18 UTC
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°10'(14.2°)
E121°40'(121.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N300km(160NM)
S190km(100NM)

Forecast for 31/18 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°55'(13.9°)
E116°25'(116.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)

Forecast for 01/18 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°55'(12.9°)
E111°35'(111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 02/18 UTC
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N11°10'(11.2°)
E106°40'(106.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Friday, October 30, 2009

PAG-ASA Bulletin #9


Severe Weather Bulletin Number NINE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)

Issued at 10:45 p.m., Friday, 30 October 2009

Typhoon "SANTI" is moving closer to Camarines Norte-Quezon Area.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 30 kms North of Daet, Camarines Norte
Coordinates: 14.3°N, 123.2°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 20 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday evening:
260 kms Southwest of Metro Manila or
230 kms West Southwest of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro

Sunday evening:
700 kms West Southwest of Calapan, Oriental MIndoro or
over the South China Sea

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3(100-185 kph winds)
Quezon
Polillo island
Bulacan
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Oriental Mindoro
Occidental Mindoro
Lubang Island
Marinduque
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila

Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)
 Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Tarlac
Pampanga
Zambales
Albay
Romblon
Calamian Group
Burias Island
Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Pangasinan
Sorsogon
Masbate
Ticao Island
Northern Palawan
Northern Samar
Northern Panay

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

JMA Bulletin at 12:45 UTC Oct. 30, 2009




TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 30 October 2009

Analyses at 30/12 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°40'(14.7°)
E123°30'(123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 31/12 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°20'(14.3°)
E118°25'(118.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)

Forecast for 01/12 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°)
E113°35'(113.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 02/12 UTC
Intensity - TD
Center position of probability circle N11°50'(11.8°)
E108°00'(108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

JTWC Warning #19



WTPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---

WARNING POSITION:

301200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 123.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 123.3E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 14.5N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 14.4N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 14.2N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:

011200Z --- 13.9N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

021200Z --- 13.2N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. 301500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 122.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z,

310900Z AND 311500Z.//

NNNN

JMA Bulletin at 09:45 UTC Oct. 29, 2009


TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 30 October 2009
Analyses at 30/09 UTC

Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°40'(14.7°)
E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 31/09 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°30'(14.5°)
E119°05'(119.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)

Forecast for 01/06 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°20'(14.3°)
E114°30'(114.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 02/06 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00'(13.0°)
E109°00'(109.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

Forecast for 03/06 UTC
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E105°35'(105.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 04/06 UTC
Center position of probability circle N10°50'(10.8°)
E102°20'(102.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

PAG-ASA Bulletin #8


Severe Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Friday, 30 October 2009
Typhoon "SANTI" is now approaching Quezon province.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 230 kms East of Infanta, Quezon
Coordinates: 14.8°N, 124.1°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph

Movement: West Southwest at 24 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday afternoon:
220 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila

Sunday afternoon:
760 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila or
over the South China Sea

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3

(100-185 kph winds)
Quezon
Polillo island
Bulacan
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Oriental Mindoro
Lubang Island
Marinduque
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila

Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Tarlac
Pampanga
Zambales
Occidental Mindoro
Albay
Burias Island

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Pangasinan
Sorsogon
Masbate
Romblon
Calamian Group
Northern Samar
Northern Panay

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

JTWC Warning #18


WTPN32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

300600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 124.6E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 124.6E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

301800Z --- 14.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

310600Z --- 14.5N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

311800Z --- 14.4N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

010600Z --- 14.1N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

020600Z --- 13.4N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

030600Z --- 13.2N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

300900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 123.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WEST AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 23W HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM DRAGGED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PROVINCES OF
LUZON. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHT BANDING EYE THAT
MADE IT EASY TO LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF PGTW, RJTD AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TYPHOON CONTINUES TO HAVE
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A MESOSCALE ANTI-
CYCLONE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. TY MIRINAE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN QUEZON PROVINCE BY TAU 12, DEFLECT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
ACROSS MANILA, AND EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A SLIGHTLY
WEAKENED TYPHOON LESS THAN 10 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO STEADILY WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY AN EARLY-SEASON COLD SURGE. MIRINAE
WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH-CENTRAL VIETNAM JUST BEFORE TAU 72 AND
WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 96.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK WITH
WBAR REMAINING AS THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. SOME
OF THE MODEL AIDS, INCLUDING JGSM, UKMET, AND GFS TAKE THE SYSTEM A
LITTLE MORE SOUTH TOWARDS HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//

NNNN

AMENDED: PAG-ASA Bulletin #7



Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN (AMENDED)
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)

Issued at 1:30 p.m., Friday, 30 October 2009
Typhoon "SANTI" has accelerated as it continues to move closer to Quezon province.
Location of Center:
(as of 1:00 p.m.) 240 kms East of Infanta, Quezon
Coordinates: 15.0°N, 124.2°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West at 28 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Friday evening:
landfall over Quezon
Saturday morning:
280 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila
Sunday morning:
600 kms West Northwest of Puerto Princesa City

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Quezon
Polillo Islands
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
 Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Bulacan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Lubang Island
Oriental Mindoro
Marinduque
Albay
Burias Island
Metro Manila

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Pangasinan
Sorsogon
Occidental Mindoro
Calamian Group
Northern Samar

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

JMA Bulletin at 03:40 UTC Oct. 30, 2009




TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 03:40 UTC, 30 October 2009
Analyses at 30/03 UTC

Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°05'(15.1°)
E124°40'(124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 31/03 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°40'(14.7°)
E119°55'(119.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)

Forecast for 01/00 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°25'(14.4°)
E116°05'(116.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 02/00 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25'(13.4°)
E110°35'(110.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 03/00 UTC
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E106°05'(106.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(12kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

Forecast for 04/00 UTC
Center position of probability circle N10°30'(10.5°)
E102°25'(102.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

PAG-ASA Bulletin #7




Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN

Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)

Issued at 11:00 a.m., Friday, 30 October 2009
 Typhoon "SANTI" continues to threaten Aurora-Quezon area.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 350 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon
Coordinates: 15.2°N, 125.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday morning:

70 kms West Northwest of Metro Manila or
in the vicinity of Zambales

Sunday morning:

600 kms West of Metro Manila or
over the South China Sea

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands

Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)
Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Bulacan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Lubang Is.
Rest of Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila

Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Pangasinan
Albay
Burias Is.
Sorsogon
Marinduque
Oriental Mindoro
Occidental Mindoro
Calamian Group
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

JTWC Warning #17



WTPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 017

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

300000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 125.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 125.9E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

301200Z --- 14.7N 122.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 14.9N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 14.8N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 14.6N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

020000Z --- 14.1N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

030000Z --- 13.1N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

300300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 125.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 28 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//

NNNN

JMA Bulletin at 00:40 UTC Oct. 30, 2009



TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 30 October 2009

Analyses at 30/00 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E125°40'(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 31/00 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°40'(14.7°)
E121°00'(121.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)

Forecast for 01/00 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°25'(14.4°)
E116°05'(116.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 02/00 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25'(13.4°)
E110°35'(110.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 03/00 UTC
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E106°05'(106.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(12kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

Forecast for 04/00 UTC
Center position of probability circle N10°30'(10.5°)
E102°25'(102.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

PAG-ASA Bulletin #6



Severe Weather Bulletin Number SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Friday, 30 October 2009

Typhoon "SANTI" continues to move closer to Aurora-Quezon area.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 580 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon
Coordinates: 15.6°N, 127.2°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday morning:

50 km East of Infanta, Quezon

Sunday morning:

370 km West of Manila

Monday morning:

840 km West of Manila

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3(100-185 kph winds)
Polillo Islands

Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)
Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Bulacan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Lubang Is.
Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila

Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
 Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Pangasinan
Albay
Burias Is.
Sorsogon
Marinduque
Oriental Mindoro
Occidental Mindoro
Calamian Group

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

JMA Bulletin at 21:45 UTC Oct. 29, 2009




TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 29 October 2009

Analyses at 29/21 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°25'(15.4°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 30/21 UTC
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°30'(14.5°)
E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 220km(120NM)

Forecast for 31/18 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°10'(14.2°)
E117°40'(117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 01/18 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°10'(13.2°)
E112°30'(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 02/18 UTC
Center position of probability circle N11°25'(11.4°)
E107°20'(107.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(13kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

Forecast for 03/18 UTC
Center position of probability circle N9°55'(9.9°)
E103°40'(103.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

JTWC Warning #16



WTPN32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

291800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 127.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 127.9E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

300600Z --- 15.0N 125.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

301800Z --- 15.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

310600Z --- 15.2N 119.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.1N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

011800Z --- 14.7N 111.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

021800Z --- 13.9N 106.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 127.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN WHICH HAS MADE
POSITIONING USING INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY DIFFICULT. HOWEVER, A
291719Z AMSU IMAGE GIVES GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT POSITION.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. MIRINAE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LUZON, THOUGH IT WILL NOT SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN
FORWARD TRACK SPEED. ONCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 72, MIRINAE WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AND
WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS AN EARLY-SEASON COLD SURGE
FURTHER INCREASES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z,

300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//

NNNN

Earthquake -Magnitude 4.7 - MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

Magnitude 4.7 - MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES: "Earthquake Details
Magnitude4.7
Date-TimeThursday, October 29, 2009 at 04:59:57 UTC
Thursday, October 29, 2009 at 12:59:57 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location5.968°N, 125.854°E
Depth116.5 km (72.4 miles)
RegionMINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
Distances75 km (45 miles) ESE of General Santos, Mindanao, Philippines
125 km (80 miles) S of Davao, Mindanao, Philippines
1095 km (680 miles) SSE of MANILA, Philippines
2505 km (1560 miles) ENE of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia

Location Uncertaintyhorizontal +/- 10.7 km (6.6 miles); depth +/- 13.5 km (8.4 miles)
ParametersNST= 27, Nph= 27, Dmin=125.6 km, Rmss=1.16 sec, Gp= 94°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7
SourceUSGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

JMA Bulletin at 15:40 UTC Oct. 29, 2009




TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 15:40 UTC, 29 October 2009

Analyses at 29/15 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°55'(15.9°)
E128°30'(128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 30/15 UTC
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°10'(15.2°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)

Forecast for 31/12 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E118°55'(118.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 01/12 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°05'(15.1°)
E113°30'(113.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 02/12 UTC
Center position of probability circle N12°50'(12.8°)
E108°05'(108.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(14kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

Forecast for 03/12 UTC
Center position of probability circle N11°00'(11.0°)
E104°25'(104.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Multi-Agency Track Forecasts as of 11:42 pm Oct 29, 2009


PAG-ASA Bulletin #5



Severe Weather Bulletin Number FIVE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Thursday, 29 October 2009

Typhoon "SANTI" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Central Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 660 km East of Baler, Aurora
Coordinates: 16.2°N, 128.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Friday evening:
180 km East of Baler, Aurora

Saturday evening:
240 km West Northwest of Manila

Sunday evening:
800 km West of Manila

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)
 Aurora
Quirino
Nueve Ecija
Bulacan
Rizal
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island

Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Ifugao
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
La Union
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Laguna
Cavite
Batangas
Lubang Is.
rest of Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

JMA Bulletin at 12:45 UTC Oct. 29, 2009



TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 29 October 2009

Analyses at 29/12 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N16°10'(16.2°)
E128°55'(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 30/12 UTC
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E123°40'(123.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)

Forecast for 31/12 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E118°55'(118.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 01/12 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°05'(15.1°)
E113°30'(113.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 02/12 UTC
Center position of probability circle N12°50'(12.8°)
E108°05'(108.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(14kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

Forecast for 03/12 UTC
Center position of probability circle N11°00'(11.0°)
E104°25'(104.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

JTWC Warning #15



WTPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 015

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

291200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 129.4E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 129.4E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

300000Z --- 15.4N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

301200Z --- 15.3N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 15.3N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 15.4N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

011200Z --- 15.0N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

021200Z --- 13.8N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

031200Z --- 13.5N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

291500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 128.7E.
TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//

NNNN

PAG-ASA Bulletin #4



Tropical Cyclone Update: "Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOUR
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon 'SANTI' (MIRINAE)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Thursday, 29 October 2009

Typhoon 'SANTI' continued moving towards Central Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 800 km East of Baler, Aurora

Coordinates: 15.8°N, 129.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph

Movement: West at 20 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Friday afternoon:
360 km East of Baler, Aurora
Saturday afternoon:
in the vicinity of Nueva Ecija or at
90 km North of Manila
Sunday afternoon:
580 km West of Manila

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds) Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) Isabela
Ifugao
Quirino
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Pampanga
Bulacan
Rizal
Rest of Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today."

JTWC Warning #14


WTPN32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 014

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

290600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 130.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 130.6E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

291800Z --- 15.5N 127.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

300600Z --- 15.1N 125.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

301800Z --- 14.9N 122.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

310600Z --- 14.9N 120.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

010600Z --- 14.8N 114.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

020600Z --- 13.7N 108.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

030600Z --- 12.8N 105.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 129.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WEST AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TY 23W
HAS LOST SOME OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER BUT HAS
MAINTAINED A CENTRAL WIND SPEED OF 90 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ITS MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE
STRONG WESTERLIES ARE ENHANCING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM.

TY MIRINAE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TY 23W IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY
FROM ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW MECHANISM - THE STRONG WESTERLIES. IT
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON AFTER TAU 36. MIRINAE WILL THEN
EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA JUST OFF SUBIC BAY BY TAU 48 AND BEGIN
TO REINTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS CENTRAL VIETNAM. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE OUTLIER
TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS FORECAST IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
JTWC CONSENSUS ALONG WITH ECMWF AND JGSM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z,

300300Z AND 300900Z.//

NNNN

Mayon Volcano Advisory

Mayon Volcano Advisory
28 October 2009

8:00 A.M.

This is to notify the public and concerned authorities on the current activity of Mayon Volcano.

At 5:32 AM today, one minor ash explosion occurred at the summit crater of Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E). This event lasted for about one minute. The explosion produced a brownish ash column that rose to a maximum height of about 600 meters above the crater and drifted to the northeast. For the past 24 hours, the seismic network recorded thirteen (13) volcanic earthquakes. Steam emission was at moderate level creeping downslope towards southwest. Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission rate was measured yesterday at 250 tonnes/day. Crater glow was not observed last night due to poor visibility.

The status of Mayon Volcano remains at Alert Level 2. This means a state of unrest which could lead to more ash explosion or eventually to hazardous magmatic eruption. Thus PHIVOLCS strongly recommends that the 6-km radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) around the volcano and the 7-km Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) on the southeast flank of the volcano are off-limits due to the threat from sudden explosions and rockfalls from the upper slope. Active river channels and those areas perennially identified as lahar prone in the southeast sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather condition or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall.

Any new development will be posted and relayed immediately to all concerned authorities.

JMA Bulletin at 06:40 UTC Oct. 29, 2009


TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 06:40 UTC, 29 October 2009

Analyses at 29/06 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°50'(15.8°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 30/06 UTC

Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E125°20'(125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)

Forecast for 31/06 UTC

Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E120°50'(120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 01/06 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25'(15.4°)
E115°00'(115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 02/06 UTC
Center position of probability circle N14°05'(14.1°)
E109°25'(109.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 03/06 UTC
Center position of probability circle N12°25'(12.4°)
E105°00'(105.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(12kt)
Radius of probability circle 480km(260NM

Comparing Forecast Tracks of Pag-asa, JTWC and JMA

Here's a comparison of forecast tracks of JTWC (US Navy), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and PAG-ASA as of 12:19 pm

JTWC Warning #13 forecast track


JMA 03:00 UTC Forecast Track


PAG-ASA BUlletin #3 Forecast Track

JMA Bulletin at 03:45 UTC Oct. 29, 2009




TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 29 October 2009

Analyses at 29/03 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°50'(15.8°)
E131°25'(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 30/03 UTC
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E125°55'(125.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

Forecast for 31/00 UTC
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E122°05'(122.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 410km(220NM)

Forecast for 01/00 UTC
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E116°35'(116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 540km(290NM)

Forecast for 02/00 UTC
Center position of probability circle N14°55'(14.9°)
E112°55'(112.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 03/00 UTC
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°)
E109°10'(109.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

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