WTPN32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 14.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.5N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.4N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.1N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.4N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.2N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 123.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WEST AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 23W HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM DRAGGED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PROVINCES OF
LUZON. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHT BANDING EYE THAT
MADE IT EASY TO LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF PGTW, RJTD AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TYPHOON CONTINUES TO HAVE
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A MESOSCALE ANTI-
CYCLONE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. TY MIRINAE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN QUEZON PROVINCE BY TAU 12, DEFLECT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
ACROSS MANILA, AND EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A SLIGHTLY
WEAKENED TYPHOON LESS THAN 10 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO STEADILY WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY AN EARLY-SEASON COLD SURGE. MIRINAE
WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH-CENTRAL VIETNAM JUST BEFORE TAU 72 AND
WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 96.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK WITH
WBAR REMAINING AS THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. SOME
OF THE MODEL AIDS, INCLUDING JGSM, UKMET, AND GFS TAKE THE SYSTEM A
LITTLE MORE SOUTH TOWARDS HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
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