JTWC Warning #16

WTPN32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

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WARNING POSITION:

291800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 127.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 127.9E

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FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

300600Z --- 15.0N 125.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

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24 HRS, VALID AT:

301800Z --- 15.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS

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36 HRS, VALID AT:

310600Z --- 15.2N 119.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.1N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

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72 HRS, VALID AT:

011800Z --- 14.7N 111.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

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96 HRS, VALID AT:

021800Z --- 13.9N 106.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

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REMARKS:

292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 127.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN WHICH HAS MADE
POSITIONING USING INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY DIFFICULT. HOWEVER, A
291719Z AMSU IMAGE GIVES GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT POSITION.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. MIRINAE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LUZON, THOUGH IT WILL NOT SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN
FORWARD TRACK SPEED. ONCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 72, MIRINAE WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AND
WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS AN EARLY-SEASON COLD SURGE
FURTHER INCREASES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z,

300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//

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