JTWC Warning #12

WTPN32 PGTW 282100


MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

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WARNING POSITION:

281800Z --- NEAR 16.3N 133.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 133.7E

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FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

290600Z --- 16.2N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS

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24 HRS, VALID AT:

291800Z --- 16.1N 127.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

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36 HRS, VALID AT:

300600Z --- 16.0N 125.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS

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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

301800Z --- 16.1N 122.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS

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72 HRS, VALID AT:

311800Z --- 16.4N 117.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

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96 HRS, VALID AT:

011800Z --- 15.7N 111.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS

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120 HRS, VALID AT:

021800Z --- 14.1N 106.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

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REMARKS:

282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 132.9E.TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS CAUSED MIRINAE TO LOSE ITS EYE-LIKE FEATURE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS WELL AS ACCESS TO
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
OUTFLOW HAS ENABLED MIRINAE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND SHOULD HELP
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY BY ANOTHER 10 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT DAY. OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS MIRINAE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, ON METSAT IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (77 KNOTS),
RJTD (90 KNOTS) AND KNES (90 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z
AND 292100Z.//

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