JTWC Warning #11

WTPN32 PGTW 281500


MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 011

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

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WARNING POSITION:

281200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 135.4E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 135.4E

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FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

290000Z --- 16.5N 132.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS

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24 HRS, VALID AT:

291200Z --- 16.4N 129.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

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36 HRS, VALID AT:

300000Z --- 16.4N 126.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

301200Z --- 16.4N 124.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS

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72 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 16.4N 119.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

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96 HRS, VALID AT:

011200Z --- 16.4N 115.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

021200Z --- 15.8N 109.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

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REMARKS:

281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 134.6E.

TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF

MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 23 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.

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