Thursday, November 19, 2009

2 new invests in the pacific


ABPW10 PGTW 181830


MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181830Z-190600ZNOV2009//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N 152.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNORGANIZED AREA OF LIMITED,
MODERATE-TO-DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
TURNING. AN 180607Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A LARGE 15 TO 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS
BROADER TURNING. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION SUPPORTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION (AND TIGHTENING) OF THE
LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW AND OUTFLOW HAS BEEN AIDED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AROUND 40N. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N 174.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST OF MAJURO. A 180626Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE
INDICATES A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE PULSING TROUGH EASTERN MICRONESIA.
HOWEVER, A MORE RECENT (181141Z TMI) MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC, OUTLINED BY PRONOUNCED CURVATURE OF DEEP
CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, HAS EVOLVED
FROM THIS WAVE. CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO BECOME
INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT, AS WELL, DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD VENTING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED THE AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AND

PARA 1.B.(2) AS FAIR.//

NNNN

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

MAYON VOLCANO ADVISORY Nov 11, 2009

MAYON VOLCANO ADVISORY
11 November 2009
7:00 A.M.
This is to notify the public and concerned authorities on the current activity of Mayon Volcano.

At 1:58 AM today, an ash explosion occurred at the summit crater of Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E). This event was recorded by the seismic network as explosion type earthquake which lasted for about three minutes and accompanied by rumbling sounds. Incandescent rock fragments at the upper slope were observed in Brgy. Lidong of Sto. Domingo, Brgys. Tumpa and Anoling of Camalig. Ash column was not observed due to cloud cover. Field investigation conducted after the event showed ashfall drifted towards the Southwest quadrant of the volcano due to the prevailing Northeast monsoon. Barangays affected by traces of ashfall were brgy. Tumpa of Camalig, Brgys. Travesia, Maipon, Masarawag, Doña Tumasa, Muladbukad Grande, and Pequeño of Guinobatan, Brgys. Nabonton and Nasisi of Ligao. Light ashfall was also noted at Brgy. San Rafael of Guinobatan. For the past 24 hours, the seismic network recorded twenty (20) volcanic earthquakes.

The status of Mayon Volcano remains at Alert Level 2. This means a state of unrest which could lead to more ash explosion or eventually to hazardous magmatic eruption. Thus PHIVOLCS strongly recommends that the 6-km radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) around the volcano and the 7-km Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) on the southeast flank of the volcano are off-limits due to the threat from sudden explosions and rockfalls from the upper slope. Active river channels and those areas perennially identified as lahar prone in the southeast sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather condition or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall.

In case of asfall, residents in affected areas should stay indoor or cover their nose with clean wet cloth or dust mask.

Any new development will be posted and relayed immediately to all concerned authorities.

Mayon Volcano Alert Levels

MAYON VOLCANO ALERT LEVELS


ALERT LEVEL MAIN CRITERIA INTERPRETATION/RECOMMENDATION

0

No Alert. Quiet.

All monitored parameters within background levels. No eruption in foreseeable future.

Entry in the 6-km radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) is not advised because phreatic explosions and ash puffs may occur without precursors.

1

Abnormal Low level unrest.

Slight increase in seismicity.

Slight increase in SO2 gas output above the background level.

Very faint glow of the crater may occur but no conclusive evidence of magma ascent.

Phreatic explosion or ash puffs may occur. No eruption imminent.

Activity may be hydrothermal, magmatic or tectonic in origin.

No entry in the 6-km radius PDZ.

2

Increasing Unrest - Moderate unrest.

Low to moderate level of seismic activity.

Episodes of harmonic tremor.

Increasing SO2 flux.

Faint / intermittent crater glow.

Swelling of edifice may be detected.

Confirmed reports of decrease in flow of wells and springs during rainy season. Unrest probably of magmatic origin; could eventually lead to eruption.

6-km radius Danger Zone may be extended to 7 km in the sector where the crater rim is low.

3

Increased Tendency Towards Eruption - Relatively high unrest.

Volcanic quakes and tremor may become more frequent.

Further increase in SO2 flux.

Occurrence of rockfalls in summit area.

Vigorous steaming / sustained crater glow.

Persistent swelling of edifice. Magma is close to the crater.

If trend is one of increasing unrest, eruption is possible within weeks.

Extension of Danger Zone in the sector where the crater rim is low will be considered.

4

Hazardous Eruption

Imminent Intense unrest.

Persistent tremor, many "low frequency"-type earthquakes.

SO2 emission level may show sustained increase or abrupt decrease.

Intense crater glow. Incandescent lava fragments in the summit area. Hazardous eruption is possible within days.

Extension of Danger zone to 8 km or morein the sector where the crater rim is low will be recommended.

5

Hazardous Eruption

Hazardous eruption ongoing.

Occurrence of pyroclastic flows, tall eruption columns and extensive ashfall. Pyroclastic flows may sweep down along gullies and channels, especially along those fronting the low part(s) of the crater rim.

Additional danger areas may be identified as eruption progresses.

Danger to aircraft, by way of ash cloud encounter, depending on height of eruption column and/or wind drift.

Revised 25 January 2001

Magnitude 4.8 Earthquake 30 kms NW of Butuan


Earthquake Details

Magnitude 4.8
Date-Time Tuesday, November 10, 2009 at 22:27:42 UTC
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 at 06:27:42 AM at epicenter

Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 9.169°N, 125.355°E
Depth 89.7 km (55.7 miles)
Region MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
Distances 30 km (20 miles) NW of Butuan, Mindanao, Philippines
70 km (45 miles) SSW of Surigao, Mindanao, Philippines
105 km (65 miles) NE of Cagayan de Oro, Mindanao, Philippines
770 km (475 miles) SE of MANILA, Philippines

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.1 km (8.1 miles); depth +/- 16.5 km (10.3 miles)

Parameters NST= 26, Nph= 26, Dmin=233.8 km, Rmss=0.85 sec, Gp=112°,

M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6

Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Sunday, November 08, 2009

Earthquake -Magnitude 4.5 - Philippine Island Region


Magnitude 4.5
Date-Time Sunday, November 08, 2009 at 10:37:39 UTC
Sunday, November 08, 2009 at 06:37:39 PM at epicenter

Location 10.437°N, 127.410°E
Depth 35 km (21.7 miles) set by location program

Region PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

Distances 195 km (121 miles) ESE (110°) from Guiuan, Samar, Philippines

223 km (139 miles) ENE (71°) from Surigao, Mindanao, Philippines

264 km (164 miles) NNE (27°) from Hinatuan, Mindanao, Philippines

840 km (522 miles) ESE (123°) from MANILA, Philippines

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 10.8 km (6.7 miles); depth fixed by location program

Parameters NST= 21, Nph= 21, Dmin=423.4 km, Rmss=0.8 sec, Gp=137°,

M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=Q

Source U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:

World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Magnitude 5.6 earthquake near Davao

Magnitude 5.6
Date-Time Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 06:21:46 UTC
Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 02:21:46 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 7.115°N, 126.606°E

Depth 110.2 km (68.5 miles)

Region MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

Distances 105 km (65 miles) E of Davao, Mindanao, Philippines

140 km (85 miles) SSE of Hinatuan, Mindanao, Philippines

190 km (120 miles) NE of General Santos, Mindanao, Philippines

1035 km (640 miles) SE of MANILA, Philippines



Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 10.1 km (6.3 miles); depth +/- 13.6 km (8.5 miles)

Parameters NST= 44, Nph= 44, Dmin=113.6 km, Rmss=1.05 sec, Gp=115°,

M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7

Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Tuesday, November 03, 2009

JTWC Warning #1 for Tropical Depression 24W (Tino)



WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022151ZNOV09//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

021800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 124.0E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

030600Z --- 13.5N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

031800Z --- 12.8N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

040600Z --- 12.6N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

---

REMARKS:

022100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 123.6E.TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (TWENTY FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO WANE AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED. ADDITIONALLY, THE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING MORE EXPOSED AND IS DRIFTING SOUTH WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE COMING OFF THE ASIAN LAND MASS. DESPITE THE DECREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION, AN AMBUIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE 021004Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A DISCERNABLE LLCC WITH 25- TO 30-KNOT WINDS AND
A 021333Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES WARNING-LEVEL WINDS STARTING TO WRAP
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. OF NOTE, THE QUIKSCAT PASS
ALSO INDICATES STRONG WINDS (40 TO 50 KNOTS) AND HIGHER SEAS (23
FEET) NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE.
TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER LUZON
BEFORE DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 012151ZNOV09
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 012200). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//

PAG-ASA Bulletin #3 TINO


Severe Weather Bulletin Number THREE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "TINO"
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Tuesday, 03 November 2009

Tropical Depression "TINO" has maintained its strength as it moves closer to Central Luzon.
Location of Center:(as of 4:00 a.m.) 150 kms East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 17.0°N, 123.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near center
Movement: West Southwest at 11 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Wednesday morning:
in the vicinity of Baguio City

Thursday morning:
200 kms West of Dagupan City

Friday morning:
460 kms West Southwest of Dagupan City

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Mt Province
Ifugao
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
La Union
Pangasinan
Nueva Ecija
Aurora
Public storm warning signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The rest of Northern Luzon will have occasional rains and gusty winds due to the surge of the northeast monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

Monday, November 02, 2009

Personal Notes on Tino

Tropical depression Tino came right after Santi (No pun intended. Santi -Tino). Pag-asa has already elevated this to tropical depression status and has already issued 2 bulletins. Other international weather agencies however have yet to issue their own bulletins. JTWC is only issuing a tropical cyclone formation alert (which i have posted here). The area where this is located at the moment is not conducive to the development of typhoons. More likely, Tino will have a burst of strength for a brief period of time but will immediately die down. One thing for sure though, Tino will bring rain along its path and therefore residents in danger of flooding and landslide should continue monitoring Tino's development.

Note: The blogger is not a professional meteorologist. For official analysis, please check Pag-asa advisories.

PAG-ASA Bulletin #2 TINO



Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "TINO"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Monday, 02 November 2009

Tropical Depression "TINO" has maintained its strength as it moves towards Northern Luzon.
Location of Center:(as of 10:00 p.m.) 200 kms East of Tuguegarao City
Coordinates: 17.3°N, 123.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near center
Movement: West at 11 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday evening:

90 kms East Southeast of Vigan City

Wednesday evening:

170 kms West of Vigan City

Thursday evening:

460 kms West Northwest of Baguio City

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Batanes group
Cagayan
Babuyan
Calayan islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Isabela
Quirino
Northern Aurora

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

However, the rest of Northern Luzon will have occasional rains and gusty winds due to the surge of the Northeast monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

JTWC Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21



WTPN21 PGTW 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 127.2E TO 19.0N 122.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 012030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 126.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.



2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 17.8N 126.3E, APPROXIMATELY360 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS PERSISTED OVER THEPAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC HAS BEENFUELING THE RECENT INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 011215Z ASCAT PASSSHOWED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC WERE BEINGENHANCED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE EAST CHINA SEA (ECS) ANDWERE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLYFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE DECREASING AS THE LLCC TRACKS TOTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 28 CELSIUS WITHIN THENEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY HELPTO SPIN THE SYSTEM UP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE LLCCMOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. THE INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEASTERLYCOLD SURGE OCCURRING OVER THE ECS WILL MAKE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALQUESTIONABLE IN THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER IN THE SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE. BASED ON INCREASING LLCC ORGANIZATION, FAVORABLE UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST VALUES, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

022200Z.//

NNNN



Sunday, November 01, 2009

Developing Tropical cyclone Alert




AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.6N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 660 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310919Z QUIKSCAT PASS HAD INDICATED A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC WITH UNFLAGGED WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS, CONFIRMED BY AN OBSERVATION, NEAR THE LLCC, SHOWING 18 KNOTS WITH A 1008.2 MB SURFACE PRESSURE. CONVECTION HAS ONLY BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY DURING NIGHTTIME COOLING PHASES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT BY A MID-LATITUDE JET THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING DEPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN CHINA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY AT MODERATE VALUES OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 TO 29 CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON INCREASING CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LLCC, BUT MODERATE LEVELS OF VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

Saturday, October 31, 2009

PAG-ASA Bulletin #11


Severe Weather Bulletin Number ELEVEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Saturday, 31 October 2009

Typhoon "SANTI" is now in the vicinity of Lubang Island and moving towards the South China Sea.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 120 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila
Coordinates: 13.8°N, 119.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 150 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday morning:
630 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila

Sunday evening:
840 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila orover the South China Sea

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3(100-185 kph winds)
 Lubang Island
Northern Section of Mindoro
Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)
 Bataan
Cavite
Batangas
Rest of Mindoro
Calamian Group
Metro Manila
Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Zambales
Tarlac
Pampanga
Bulacan
Rizal
Laguna
Quezon
Marinduque
Northern Palawan

Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

Magnitude 4.9 - LUZON, PHILIPPINES


Magnitude 4.9
Date-Time Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 00:07:43 UTC
Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 08:07:43 AM at epicenter

Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 15.038°N, 120.007°E
Depth 78.7 km (48.9 miles)
Region LUZON, PHILIPPINES

Distances 40 km (25 miles) NW of Olongapo, Luzon, Philippines

60 km (35 miles) WSW of Angeles, Luzon, Philippines

115 km (70 miles) WNW of MANILA, Philippines

115 km (70 miles) WSW of Cabanatuan, Luzon, Philippines

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 16.6 km (10.3 miles); depth +/- 10.3 km (6.4 miles)

Parameters NST= 40, Nph= 42, Dmin=868.3 km, Rmss=1.28 sec, Gp=101°,

M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6

Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

JTWC Warning #21



WTPN32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

310000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 120.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 120.2E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 13.9N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 13.7N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

011200Z --- 13.3N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.9N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

030000Z --- 12.1N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

310300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 119.5E.TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.//

NNNN

JMA Bulletin at 00:45 UTC Oct. 31, 2009




STS 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 31 October 2009


Analyses at 31/00 UTC
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°05'(14.1°)
E120°25'(120.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N300km(160NM)
S190km(100NM)

Forecast for 01/00 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°50'(13.8°)
E115°05'(115.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)

Forecast for 02/00 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°25'(12.4°)
E109°55'(109.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 03/00 UTC
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N10°20'(10.3°)
E104°50'(104.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

JTWC Warning #20



WTPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

301800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 121.7E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.2N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

311800Z --- 14.0N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

010600Z --- 13.7N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

011800Z --- 13.2N 110.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

021800Z --- 12.4N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

302100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 121.0E.TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MIRINAE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TS 23W HAS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON, WITH A LARGE DECREASE IN ONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301710Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF TS 23W HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE. LAND INFLUENCES
HAVE WEAKENED THE SYSTEM DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS (FROM
85 TO 55 KNOTS). TS 23W IS STILL TRACKING QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER LUZON, WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN THE TRACK SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER WILL LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO VIETNAM AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 22 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//

NNNN

PAG-ASA Bulletin #10


Severe Weather Bulletin Number TEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Saturday, 31 October 2009

Typhoon "SANTI" is now traversing Southern Tagalog and has weakened slightly.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 60 kms South Southeast of Metro Manila
Coordinates: 14.0°N, 121.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 130 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 160 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 24 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday morning:
510 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila or

Sunday afternoon:
770 kms West West of Calapan, Oriental MIndoro or
over the South China Sea

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3

(100-185 kph winds)
 Bataan
Rizal
Laguna
Cavite
Batangas
Oriental Mindoro
Occidental Mindoro
Lubang Island
Metro Manila

Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)
 Pampanga
Bulacan
Quezon
Polillo Island
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Marinduque
Romblon
Calamian Group

Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Zambales
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Aurora
Albay
Burias Island
Northern Palawan Northern Panay

Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

JMA Bulletin at 18:45 UTC Oct. 30, 2009




STS 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 30 October 2009

Analyses at 30/18 UTC
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°10'(14.2°)
E121°40'(121.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N300km(160NM)
S190km(100NM)

Forecast for 31/18 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°55'(13.9°)
E116°25'(116.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)

Forecast for 01/18 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°55'(12.9°)
E111°35'(111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 02/18 UTC
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N11°10'(11.2°)
E106°40'(106.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

Friday, October 30, 2009

PAG-ASA Bulletin #9


Severe Weather Bulletin Number NINE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)

Issued at 10:45 p.m., Friday, 30 October 2009

Typhoon "SANTI" is moving closer to Camarines Norte-Quezon Area.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 30 kms North of Daet, Camarines Norte
Coordinates: 14.3°N, 123.2°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 20 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday evening:
260 kms Southwest of Metro Manila or
230 kms West Southwest of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro

Sunday evening:
700 kms West Southwest of Calapan, Oriental MIndoro or
over the South China Sea

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3(100-185 kph winds)
Quezon
Polillo island
Bulacan
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Oriental Mindoro
Occidental Mindoro
Lubang Island
Marinduque
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila

Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)
 Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Tarlac
Pampanga
Zambales
Albay
Romblon
Calamian Group
Burias Island
Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Pangasinan
Sorsogon
Masbate
Ticao Island
Northern Palawan
Northern Samar
Northern Panay

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

JMA Bulletin at 12:45 UTC Oct. 30, 2009




TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 30 October 2009

Analyses at 30/12 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°40'(14.7°)
E123°30'(123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 31/12 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°20'(14.3°)
E118°25'(118.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)

Forecast for 01/12 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°)
E113°35'(113.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 02/12 UTC
Intensity - TD
Center position of probability circle N11°50'(11.8°)
E108°00'(108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

JTWC Warning #19



WTPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---

WARNING POSITION:

301200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 123.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 123.3E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 14.5N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 14.4N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 14.2N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:

011200Z --- 13.9N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

021200Z --- 13.2N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. 301500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 122.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z,

310900Z AND 311500Z.//

NNNN

JMA Bulletin at 09:45 UTC Oct. 29, 2009


TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 30 October 2009
Analyses at 30/09 UTC

Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°40'(14.7°)
E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 31/09 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°30'(14.5°)
E119°05'(119.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)

Forecast for 01/06 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°20'(14.3°)
E114°30'(114.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 02/06 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00'(13.0°)
E109°00'(109.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

Forecast for 03/06 UTC
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E105°35'(105.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 04/06 UTC
Center position of probability circle N10°50'(10.8°)
E102°20'(102.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

PAG-ASA Bulletin #8


Severe Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Friday, 30 October 2009
Typhoon "SANTI" is now approaching Quezon province.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 230 kms East of Infanta, Quezon
Coordinates: 14.8°N, 124.1°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph

Movement: West Southwest at 24 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday afternoon:
220 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila

Sunday afternoon:
760 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila or
over the South China Sea

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3

(100-185 kph winds)
Quezon
Polillo island
Bulacan
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Oriental Mindoro
Lubang Island
Marinduque
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila

Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Tarlac
Pampanga
Zambales
Occidental Mindoro
Albay
Burias Island

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Pangasinan
Sorsogon
Masbate
Romblon
Calamian Group
Northern Samar
Northern Panay

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

JTWC Warning #18


WTPN32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

300600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 124.6E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 124.6E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

301800Z --- 14.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

310600Z --- 14.5N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

311800Z --- 14.4N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

010600Z --- 14.1N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

020600Z --- 13.4N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

030600Z --- 13.2N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

300900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 123.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WEST AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 23W HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM DRAGGED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PROVINCES OF
LUZON. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHT BANDING EYE THAT
MADE IT EASY TO LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF PGTW, RJTD AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TYPHOON CONTINUES TO HAVE
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A MESOSCALE ANTI-
CYCLONE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. TY MIRINAE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN QUEZON PROVINCE BY TAU 12, DEFLECT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
ACROSS MANILA, AND EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A SLIGHTLY
WEAKENED TYPHOON LESS THAN 10 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO STEADILY WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY AN EARLY-SEASON COLD SURGE. MIRINAE
WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH-CENTRAL VIETNAM JUST BEFORE TAU 72 AND
WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 96.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK WITH
WBAR REMAINING AS THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. SOME
OF THE MODEL AIDS, INCLUDING JGSM, UKMET, AND GFS TAKE THE SYSTEM A
LITTLE MORE SOUTH TOWARDS HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//

NNNN

AMENDED: PAG-ASA Bulletin #7



Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN (AMENDED)
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)

Issued at 1:30 p.m., Friday, 30 October 2009
Typhoon "SANTI" has accelerated as it continues to move closer to Quezon province.
Location of Center:
(as of 1:00 p.m.) 240 kms East of Infanta, Quezon
Coordinates: 15.0°N, 124.2°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West at 28 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Friday evening:
landfall over Quezon
Saturday morning:
280 kms West Southwest of Metro Manila
Sunday morning:
600 kms West Northwest of Puerto Princesa City

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Quezon
Polillo Islands
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
 Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Bulacan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Lubang Island
Oriental Mindoro
Marinduque
Albay
Burias Island
Metro Manila

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Pangasinan
Sorsogon
Occidental Mindoro
Calamian Group
Northern Samar

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

JMA Bulletin at 03:40 UTC Oct. 30, 2009




TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 03:40 UTC, 30 October 2009
Analyses at 30/03 UTC

Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°05'(15.1°)
E124°40'(124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 31/03 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°40'(14.7°)
E119°55'(119.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)

Forecast for 01/00 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°25'(14.4°)
E116°05'(116.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 02/00 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25'(13.4°)
E110°35'(110.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 03/00 UTC
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E106°05'(106.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(12kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

Forecast for 04/00 UTC
Center position of probability circle N10°30'(10.5°)
E102°25'(102.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

PAG-ASA Bulletin #7




Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN

Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)

Issued at 11:00 a.m., Friday, 30 October 2009
 Typhoon "SANTI" continues to threaten Aurora-Quezon area.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 350 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon
Coordinates: 15.2°N, 125.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday morning:

70 kms West Northwest of Metro Manila or
in the vicinity of Zambales

Sunday morning:

600 kms West of Metro Manila or
over the South China Sea

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands

Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)
Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Bulacan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Lubang Is.
Rest of Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila

Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Pangasinan
Albay
Burias Is.
Sorsogon
Marinduque
Oriental Mindoro
Occidental Mindoro
Calamian Group
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

JTWC Warning #17



WTPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 017

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

300000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 125.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 125.9E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

301200Z --- 14.7N 122.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 14.9N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 14.8N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 14.6N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

020000Z --- 14.1N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

030000Z --- 13.1N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

300300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 125.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 28 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//

NNNN

JMA Bulletin at 00:40 UTC Oct. 30, 2009



TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 30 October 2009

Analyses at 30/00 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E125°40'(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 31/00 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°40'(14.7°)
E121°00'(121.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)

Forecast for 01/00 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°25'(14.4°)
E116°05'(116.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 02/00 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25'(13.4°)
E110°35'(110.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 03/00 UTC
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E106°05'(106.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(12kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

Forecast for 04/00 UTC
Center position of probability circle N10°30'(10.5°)
E102°25'(102.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

PAG-ASA Bulletin #6



Severe Weather Bulletin Number SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Friday, 30 October 2009

Typhoon "SANTI" continues to move closer to Aurora-Quezon area.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 580 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon
Coordinates: 15.6°N, 127.2°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday morning:

50 km East of Infanta, Quezon

Sunday morning:

370 km West of Manila

Monday morning:

840 km West of Manila

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3(100-185 kph winds)
Polillo Islands

Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)
Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Bulacan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Lubang Is.
Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila

Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
 Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Pangasinan
Albay
Burias Is.
Sorsogon
Marinduque
Oriental Mindoro
Occidental Mindoro
Calamian Group

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

JMA Bulletin at 21:45 UTC Oct. 29, 2009




TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 29 October 2009

Analyses at 29/21 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°25'(15.4°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 30/21 UTC
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°30'(14.5°)
E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 220km(120NM)

Forecast for 31/18 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°10'(14.2°)
E117°40'(117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 01/18 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°10'(13.2°)
E112°30'(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 02/18 UTC
Center position of probability circle N11°25'(11.4°)
E107°20'(107.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(13kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

Forecast for 03/18 UTC
Center position of probability circle N9°55'(9.9°)
E103°40'(103.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

JTWC Warning #16



WTPN32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

291800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 127.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 127.9E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

300600Z --- 15.0N 125.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

301800Z --- 15.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

310600Z --- 15.2N 119.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.1N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

011800Z --- 14.7N 111.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

021800Z --- 13.9N 106.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 127.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN WHICH HAS MADE
POSITIONING USING INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY DIFFICULT. HOWEVER, A
291719Z AMSU IMAGE GIVES GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT POSITION.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. MIRINAE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LUZON, THOUGH IT WILL NOT SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN
FORWARD TRACK SPEED. ONCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 72, MIRINAE WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AND
WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS AN EARLY-SEASON COLD SURGE
FURTHER INCREASES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z,

300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//

NNNN

Earthquake -Magnitude 4.7 - MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

Magnitude 4.7 - MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES: "Earthquake Details
Magnitude4.7
Date-TimeThursday, October 29, 2009 at 04:59:57 UTC
Thursday, October 29, 2009 at 12:59:57 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location5.968°N, 125.854°E
Depth116.5 km (72.4 miles)
RegionMINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
Distances75 km (45 miles) ESE of General Santos, Mindanao, Philippines
125 km (80 miles) S of Davao, Mindanao, Philippines
1095 km (680 miles) SSE of MANILA, Philippines
2505 km (1560 miles) ENE of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia

Location Uncertaintyhorizontal +/- 10.7 km (6.6 miles); depth +/- 13.5 km (8.4 miles)
ParametersNST= 27, Nph= 27, Dmin=125.6 km, Rmss=1.16 sec, Gp= 94°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7
SourceUSGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

JMA Bulletin at 15:40 UTC Oct. 29, 2009




TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 15:40 UTC, 29 October 2009

Analyses at 29/15 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°55'(15.9°)
E128°30'(128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 30/15 UTC
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°10'(15.2°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)

Forecast for 31/12 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E118°55'(118.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 01/12 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°05'(15.1°)
E113°30'(113.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 02/12 UTC
Center position of probability circle N12°50'(12.8°)
E108°05'(108.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(14kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

Forecast for 03/12 UTC
Center position of probability circle N11°00'(11.0°)
E104°25'(104.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Multi-Agency Track Forecasts as of 11:42 pm Oct 29, 2009


PAG-ASA Bulletin #5



Severe Weather Bulletin Number FIVE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Thursday, 29 October 2009

Typhoon "SANTI" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Central Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 660 km East of Baler, Aurora
Coordinates: 16.2°N, 128.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Friday evening:
180 km East of Baler, Aurora

Saturday evening:
240 km West Northwest of Manila

Sunday evening:
800 km West of Manila

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 2(60-100 kph winds)
 Aurora
Quirino
Nueve Ecija
Bulacan
Rizal
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island

Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Ifugao
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
La Union
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Laguna
Cavite
Batangas
Lubang Is.
rest of Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

JMA Bulletin at 12:45 UTC Oct. 29, 2009



TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 29 October 2009

Analyses at 29/12 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N16°10'(16.2°)
E128°55'(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)

Forecast for 30/12 UTC
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E123°40'(123.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)

Forecast for 31/12 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E118°55'(118.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

Forecast for 01/12 UTC
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°05'(15.1°)
E113°30'(113.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

Forecast for 02/12 UTC
Center position of probability circle N12°50'(12.8°)
E108°05'(108.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(14kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

Forecast for 03/12 UTC
Center position of probability circle N11°00'(11.0°)
E104°25'(104.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

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