AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.6N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 660 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310919Z QUIKSCAT PASS HAD INDICATED A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC WITH UNFLAGGED WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS, CONFIRMED BY AN OBSERVATION, NEAR THE LLCC, SHOWING 18 KNOTS WITH A 1008.2 MB SURFACE PRESSURE. CONVECTION HAS ONLY BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY DURING NIGHTTIME COOLING PHASES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT BY A MID-LATITUDE JET THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING DEPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN CHINA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY AT MODERATE VALUES OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 TO 29 CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON INCREASING CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LLCC, BUT MODERATE LEVELS OF VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
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