WTPN21 PGTW 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 127.2E TO 19.0N 122.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 012030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 126.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 17.8N 126.3E, APPROXIMATELY360 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS PERSISTED OVER THEPAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC HAS BEENFUELING THE RECENT INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 011215Z ASCAT PASSSHOWED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC WERE BEINGENHANCED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE EAST CHINA SEA (ECS) ANDWERE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLYFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE DECREASING AS THE LLCC TRACKS TOTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 28 CELSIUS WITHIN THENEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY HELPTO SPIN THE SYSTEM UP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE LLCCMOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. THE INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEASTERLYCOLD SURGE OCCURRING OVER THE ECS WILL MAKE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALQUESTIONABLE IN THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER IN THE SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE. BASED ON INCREASING LLCC ORGANIZATION, FAVORABLE UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST VALUES, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022200Z.//
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