JTWC Warning #1 for Tropical Depression 24W (Tino)

WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022151ZNOV09//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

021800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 124.0E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

030600Z --- 13.5N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

031800Z --- 12.8N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

040600Z --- 12.6N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

---

REMARKS:

022100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 123.6E.TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (TWENTY FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO WANE AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED. ADDITIONALLY, THE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING MORE EXPOSED AND IS DRIFTING SOUTH WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE COMING OFF THE ASIAN LAND MASS. DESPITE THE DECREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION, AN AMBUIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE 021004Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A DISCERNABLE LLCC WITH 25- TO 30-KNOT WINDS AND
A 021333Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES WARNING-LEVEL WINDS STARTING TO WRAP
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. OF NOTE, THE QUIKSCAT PASS
ALSO INDICATES STRONG WINDS (40 TO 50 KNOTS) AND HIGHER SEAS (23
FEET) NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE.
TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER LUZON
BEFORE DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 012151ZNOV09
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 012200). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//

JTWC Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21

WTPN21 PGTW 012200

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 127.2E TO 19.0N 122.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 012030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 126.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 17.8N 126.3E, APPROXIMATELY360 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS PERSISTED OVER THEPAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC HAS BEENFUELING THE RECENT INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 011215Z ASCAT PASSSHOWED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC WERE BEINGENHANCED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE EAST CHINA SEA (ECS) ANDWERE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLYFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE DECREASING AS THE LLCC TRACKS TOTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 28 CELSIUS WITHIN THENEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY HELPTO SPIN THE SYSTEM UP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE LLCCMOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. THE INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEASTERLYCOLD SURGE OCCURRING OVER THE ECS WILL MAKE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALQUESTIONABLE IN THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER IN THE SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE. BASED ON INCREASING LLCC ORGANIZATION, FAVORABLE UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST VALUES, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

022200Z.//

NNNN

JTWC Warning #21

WTPN32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

310000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 120.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 120.2E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 13.9N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 13.7N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

011200Z --- 13.3N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.9N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

030000Z --- 12.1N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

310300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 119.5E.TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.//

NNNN

JTWC Warning #20

WTPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

301800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 121.7E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.2N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

311800Z --- 14.0N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

010600Z --- 13.7N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

011800Z --- 13.2N 110.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

021800Z --- 12.4N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

302100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 121.0E.TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MIRINAE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TS 23W HAS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON, WITH A LARGE DECREASE IN ONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301710Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF TS 23W HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE. LAND INFLUENCES
HAVE WEAKENED THE SYSTEM DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS (FROM
85 TO 55 KNOTS). TS 23W IS STILL TRACKING QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER LUZON, WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN THE TRACK SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER WILL LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO VIETNAM AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 22 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//

NNNN

JTWC Warning #19

WTPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---

WARNING POSITION:

301200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 123.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 123.3E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 14.5N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 14.4N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 14.2N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:

011200Z --- 13.9N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

021200Z --- 13.2N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. 301500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 122.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z,

310900Z AND 311500Z.//

NNNN

JTWC Warning #17

WTPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 017

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

300000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 125.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 125.9E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

301200Z --- 14.7N 122.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 14.9N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 14.8N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 14.6N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

020000Z --- 14.1N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

030000Z --- 13.1N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

300300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 125.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 28 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//

NNNN

JTWC Warning #16

WTPN32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

291800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 127.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 127.9E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

300600Z --- 15.0N 125.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

301800Z --- 15.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

310600Z --- 15.2N 119.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.1N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

011800Z --- 14.7N 111.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

021800Z --- 13.9N 106.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 127.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN WHICH HAS MADE
POSITIONING USING INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY DIFFICULT. HOWEVER, A
291719Z AMSU IMAGE GIVES GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT POSITION.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. MIRINAE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LUZON, THOUGH IT WILL NOT SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN
FORWARD TRACK SPEED. ONCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 72, MIRINAE WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AND
WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS AN EARLY-SEASON COLD SURGE
FURTHER INCREASES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z,

300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//

NNNN

JTWC Warning #15

WTPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 015

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

291200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 129.4E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 129.4E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

300000Z --- 15.4N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

301200Z --- 15.3N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 15.3N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 15.4N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

011200Z --- 15.0N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

021200Z --- 13.8N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

031200Z --- 13.5N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

291500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 128.7E.
TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//

NNNN

JTWC Warning #14

WTPN32 PGTW 290900

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 014

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

290600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 130.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 130.6E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

291800Z --- 15.5N 127.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

300600Z --- 15.1N 125.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

301800Z --- 14.9N 122.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

310600Z --- 14.9N 120.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

010600Z --- 14.8N 114.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

020600Z --- 13.7N 108.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

030600Z --- 12.8N 105.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 129.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WEST AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TY 23W
HAS LOST SOME OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER BUT HAS
MAINTAINED A CENTRAL WIND SPEED OF 90 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ITS MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE
STRONG WESTERLIES ARE ENHANCING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM.

TY MIRINAE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TY 23W IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY
FROM ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW MECHANISM - THE STRONG WESTERLIES. IT
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON AFTER TAU 36. MIRINAE WILL THEN
EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA JUST OFF SUBIC BAY BY TAU 48 AND BEGIN
TO REINTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS CENTRAL VIETNAM. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE OUTLIER
TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS FORECAST IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
JTWC CONSENSUS ALONG WITH ECMWF AND JGSM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z,

300300Z AND 300900Z.//

NNNN

JTWC Warning #13

WTPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 013

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

290000Z --- NEAR 16.1N 132.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 132.2E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

291200Z --- 15.7N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

300000Z --- 15.5N 126.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

301200Z --- 15.3N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 15.3N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 15.5N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

020000Z --- 14.6N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

030000Z --- 13.1N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 131.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 30 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//

NNNN

JTWC Warning #12

WTPN32 PGTW 282100


MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

281800Z --- NEAR 16.3N 133.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 133.7E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

290600Z --- 16.2N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

291800Z --- 16.1N 127.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

300600Z --- 16.0N 125.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

301800Z --- 16.1N 122.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

311800Z --- 16.4N 117.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

011800Z --- 15.7N 111.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

021800Z --- 14.1N 106.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 132.9E.TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS CAUSED MIRINAE TO LOSE ITS EYE-LIKE FEATURE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS WELL AS ACCESS TO
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
OUTFLOW HAS ENABLED MIRINAE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND SHOULD HELP
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY BY ANOTHER 10 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT DAY. OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS MIRINAE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, ON METSAT IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (77 KNOTS),
RJTD (90 KNOTS) AND KNES (90 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z
AND 292100Z.//

NNNN

JTWC Warning #11

WTPN32 PGTW 281500


MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 011

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

281200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 135.4E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 135.4E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

290000Z --- 16.5N 132.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

291200Z --- 16.4N 129.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

300000Z --- 16.4N 126.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

301200Z --- 16.4N 124.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 16.4N 119.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

011200Z --- 16.4N 115.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

021200Z --- 15.8N 109.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

REMARKS:

281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 134.6E.

TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF

MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 23 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.

//

NNNN

JTWC Warning #9

WTPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---

WARNING POSITION:

280000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 138.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 138.5E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

281200Z --- 16.7N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

290000Z --- 17.0N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

291200Z --- 17.2N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

300000Z --- 17.1N 126.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 16.7N 123.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 16.3N 120.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

020000Z --- 16.1N 116.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

REMARKS:

280300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 137.7E.

TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1020 NM EAST OF

MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 19 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//

NNNN

JTWC Warning #8

WTPN32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 15.9N 140.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 140.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.5N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.9N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.2N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.8N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.4N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.1N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 139.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271638Z AMSR-E
IMAGE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IS EVIDENT IN THE
AMSR-E PASS WITH DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING COMPLETELY AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MIRINAE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS LINKED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH OF MIRINAE AND HAS HELPED TO FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH ON THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AS THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW RE-ALIGNS AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL. TY 23W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THROUGH TAU 72 PRIOR TO LANDFALL
WITH LUZON; DECREASING AS IT TRACKS OVER LUZON INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. LAND INTERACTION WILL SLOW MIRINAE FROM TAU 72 THROUGH 120 AS
IT TRACKS OVER LUZON, BUT THE CYCLONE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TRACK SPEED UPON RE-ENTERING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN

JTWC Warning #7 Mirinae (Santi)

WTPN32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 15.6N 142.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 142.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.3N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.8N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.2N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.9N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.4N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.1N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 141.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN