WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022151ZNOV09//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 124.0E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.5N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 12.8N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 12.6N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 123.6E.TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (TWENTY FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO WANE AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED. ADDITIONALLY, THE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING MORE EXPOSED AND IS DRIFTING SOUTH WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE COMING OFF THE ASIAN LAND MASS. DESPITE THE DECREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION, AN AMBUIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE 021004Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A DISCERNABLE LLCC WITH 25- TO 30-KNOT WINDS AND
A 021333Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES WARNING-LEVEL WINDS STARTING TO WRAP
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. OF NOTE, THE QUIKSCAT PASS
ALSO INDICATES STRONG WINDS (40 TO 50 KNOTS) AND HIGHER SEAS (23
FEET) NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE.
TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER LUZON
BEFORE DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 012151ZNOV09
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 012200). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
