It's been more than two years since i posted my last entry in this blog. A lot had happened during those two years. New passions discovered. New interests developed. New friendships made. But some interests need rediscovery. Writing is one of them. Voices are too loud to be ignored. It needs to be written in words, to be read, analyzed, criticized. In those two years, the world has become even more exciting... there's just plenty of things to write about. Not just weather, or politics, or sports, or entertainment.
Much will be written in the days to come. For now, i'm just glad i'm back..........
Thursday, April 07, 2011
Thursday, November 19, 2009
2 new invests in the pacific
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181830Z-190600ZNOV2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N 152.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNORGANIZED AREA OF LIMITED,
MODERATE-TO-DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
TURNING. AN 180607Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A LARGE 15 TO 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS
BROADER TURNING. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION SUPPORTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION (AND TIGHTENING) OF THE
LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW AND OUTFLOW HAS BEEN AIDED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AROUND 40N. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N 174.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST OF MAJURO. A 180626Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE
INDICATES A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE PULSING TROUGH EASTERN MICRONESIA.
HOWEVER, A MORE RECENT (181141Z TMI) MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC, OUTLINED BY PRONOUNCED CURVATURE OF DEEP
CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, HAS EVOLVED
FROM THIS WAVE. CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO BECOME
INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT, AS WELL, DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD VENTING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED THE AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AND
PARA 1.B.(2) AS FAIR.//
NNNN
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
MAYON VOLCANO ADVISORY Nov 11, 2009
MAYON VOLCANO ADVISORY
11 November 2009
7:00 A.M.
This is to notify the public and concerned authorities on the current activity of Mayon Volcano.
At 1:58 AM today, an ash explosion occurred at the summit crater of Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E). This event was recorded by the seismic network as explosion type earthquake which lasted for about three minutes and accompanied by rumbling sounds. Incandescent rock fragments at the upper slope were observed in Brgy. Lidong of Sto. Domingo, Brgys. Tumpa and Anoling of Camalig. Ash column was not observed due to cloud cover. Field investigation conducted after the event showed ashfall drifted towards the Southwest quadrant of the volcano due to the prevailing Northeast monsoon. Barangays affected by traces of ashfall were brgy. Tumpa of Camalig, Brgys. Travesia, Maipon, Masarawag, Doña Tumasa, Muladbukad Grande, and Pequeño of Guinobatan, Brgys. Nabonton and Nasisi of Ligao. Light ashfall was also noted at Brgy. San Rafael of Guinobatan. For the past 24 hours, the seismic network recorded twenty (20) volcanic earthquakes.
The status of Mayon Volcano remains at Alert Level 2. This means a state of unrest which could lead to more ash explosion or eventually to hazardous magmatic eruption. Thus PHIVOLCS strongly recommends that the 6-km radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) around the volcano and the 7-km Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) on the southeast flank of the volcano are off-limits due to the threat from sudden explosions and rockfalls from the upper slope. Active river channels and those areas perennially identified as lahar prone in the southeast sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather condition or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall.
In case of asfall, residents in affected areas should stay indoor or cover their nose with clean wet cloth or dust mask.
Any new development will be posted and relayed immediately to all concerned authorities.
11 November 2009
7:00 A.M.
This is to notify the public and concerned authorities on the current activity of Mayon Volcano.
At 1:58 AM today, an ash explosion occurred at the summit crater of Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E). This event was recorded by the seismic network as explosion type earthquake which lasted for about three minutes and accompanied by rumbling sounds. Incandescent rock fragments at the upper slope were observed in Brgy. Lidong of Sto. Domingo, Brgys. Tumpa and Anoling of Camalig. Ash column was not observed due to cloud cover. Field investigation conducted after the event showed ashfall drifted towards the Southwest quadrant of the volcano due to the prevailing Northeast monsoon. Barangays affected by traces of ashfall were brgy. Tumpa of Camalig, Brgys. Travesia, Maipon, Masarawag, Doña Tumasa, Muladbukad Grande, and Pequeño of Guinobatan, Brgys. Nabonton and Nasisi of Ligao. Light ashfall was also noted at Brgy. San Rafael of Guinobatan. For the past 24 hours, the seismic network recorded twenty (20) volcanic earthquakes.
The status of Mayon Volcano remains at Alert Level 2. This means a state of unrest which could lead to more ash explosion or eventually to hazardous magmatic eruption. Thus PHIVOLCS strongly recommends that the 6-km radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) around the volcano and the 7-km Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) on the southeast flank of the volcano are off-limits due to the threat from sudden explosions and rockfalls from the upper slope. Active river channels and those areas perennially identified as lahar prone in the southeast sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather condition or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall.
In case of asfall, residents in affected areas should stay indoor or cover their nose with clean wet cloth or dust mask.
Any new development will be posted and relayed immediately to all concerned authorities.
Mayon Volcano Alert Levels
MAYON VOLCANO ALERT LEVELS
ALERT LEVEL MAIN CRITERIA INTERPRETATION/RECOMMENDATION
0
No Alert. Quiet.
All monitored parameters within background levels. No eruption in foreseeable future.
Entry in the 6-km radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) is not advised because phreatic explosions and ash puffs may occur without precursors.
1
Abnormal Low level unrest.
Slight increase in seismicity.
Slight increase in SO2 gas output above the background level.
Very faint glow of the crater may occur but no conclusive evidence of magma ascent.
Phreatic explosion or ash puffs may occur. No eruption imminent.
Activity may be hydrothermal, magmatic or tectonic in origin.
No entry in the 6-km radius PDZ.
2
Increasing Unrest - Moderate unrest.
Low to moderate level of seismic activity.
Episodes of harmonic tremor.
Increasing SO2 flux.
Faint / intermittent crater glow.
Swelling of edifice may be detected.
Confirmed reports of decrease in flow of wells and springs during rainy season. Unrest probably of magmatic origin; could eventually lead to eruption.
6-km radius Danger Zone may be extended to 7 km in the sector where the crater rim is low.
3
Increased Tendency Towards Eruption - Relatively high unrest.
Volcanic quakes and tremor may become more frequent.
Further increase in SO2 flux.
Occurrence of rockfalls in summit area.
Vigorous steaming / sustained crater glow.
Persistent swelling of edifice. Magma is close to the crater.
If trend is one of increasing unrest, eruption is possible within weeks.
Extension of Danger Zone in the sector where the crater rim is low will be considered.
4
Hazardous Eruption
Imminent Intense unrest.
Persistent tremor, many "low frequency"-type earthquakes.
SO2 emission level may show sustained increase or abrupt decrease.
Intense crater glow. Incandescent lava fragments in the summit area. Hazardous eruption is possible within days.
Extension of Danger zone to 8 km or morein the sector where the crater rim is low will be recommended.
5
Hazardous Eruption
Hazardous eruption ongoing.
Occurrence of pyroclastic flows, tall eruption columns and extensive ashfall. Pyroclastic flows may sweep down along gullies and channels, especially along those fronting the low part(s) of the crater rim.
Additional danger areas may be identified as eruption progresses.
Danger to aircraft, by way of ash cloud encounter, depending on height of eruption column and/or wind drift.
Revised 25 January 2001
ALERT LEVEL MAIN CRITERIA INTERPRETATION/RECOMMENDATION
0
No Alert. Quiet.
All monitored parameters within background levels. No eruption in foreseeable future.
Entry in the 6-km radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) is not advised because phreatic explosions and ash puffs may occur without precursors.
1
Abnormal Low level unrest.
Slight increase in seismicity.
Slight increase in SO2 gas output above the background level.
Very faint glow of the crater may occur but no conclusive evidence of magma ascent.
Phreatic explosion or ash puffs may occur. No eruption imminent.
Activity may be hydrothermal, magmatic or tectonic in origin.
No entry in the 6-km radius PDZ.
2
Increasing Unrest - Moderate unrest.
Low to moderate level of seismic activity.
Episodes of harmonic tremor.
Increasing SO2 flux.
Faint / intermittent crater glow.
Swelling of edifice may be detected.
Confirmed reports of decrease in flow of wells and springs during rainy season. Unrest probably of magmatic origin; could eventually lead to eruption.
6-km radius Danger Zone may be extended to 7 km in the sector where the crater rim is low.
3
Increased Tendency Towards Eruption - Relatively high unrest.
Volcanic quakes and tremor may become more frequent.
Further increase in SO2 flux.
Occurrence of rockfalls in summit area.
Vigorous steaming / sustained crater glow.
Persistent swelling of edifice. Magma is close to the crater.
If trend is one of increasing unrest, eruption is possible within weeks.
Extension of Danger Zone in the sector where the crater rim is low will be considered.
4
Hazardous Eruption
Imminent Intense unrest.
Persistent tremor, many "low frequency"-type earthquakes.
SO2 emission level may show sustained increase or abrupt decrease.
Intense crater glow. Incandescent lava fragments in the summit area. Hazardous eruption is possible within days.
Extension of Danger zone to 8 km or morein the sector where the crater rim is low will be recommended.
5
Hazardous Eruption
Hazardous eruption ongoing.
Occurrence of pyroclastic flows, tall eruption columns and extensive ashfall. Pyroclastic flows may sweep down along gullies and channels, especially along those fronting the low part(s) of the crater rim.
Additional danger areas may be identified as eruption progresses.
Danger to aircraft, by way of ash cloud encounter, depending on height of eruption column and/or wind drift.
Revised 25 January 2001
Magnitude 4.8 Earthquake 30 kms NW of Butuan
Magnitude 4.8
Date-Time Tuesday, November 10, 2009 at 22:27:42 UTC
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 at 06:27:42 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 9.169°N, 125.355°E
Depth 89.7 km (55.7 miles)
Region MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
Distances 30 km (20 miles) NW of Butuan, Mindanao, Philippines
70 km (45 miles) SSW of Surigao, Mindanao, Philippines
105 km (65 miles) NE of Cagayan de Oro, Mindanao, Philippines
770 km (475 miles) SE of MANILA, Philippines
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.1 km (8.1 miles); depth +/- 16.5 km (10.3 miles)
Parameters NST= 26, Nph= 26, Dmin=233.8 km, Rmss=0.85 sec, Gp=112°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Sunday, November 08, 2009
Earthquake -Magnitude 4.5 - Philippine Island Region
Date-Time Sunday, November 08, 2009 at 10:37:39 UTC
Sunday, November 08, 2009 at 06:37:39 PM at epicenter
Location 10.437°N, 127.410°E
Depth 35 km (21.7 miles) set by location program
Region PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
Distances 195 km (121 miles) ESE (110°) from Guiuan, Samar, Philippines
223 km (139 miles) ENE (71°) from Surigao, Mindanao, Philippines
264 km (164 miles) NNE (27°) from Hinatuan, Mindanao, Philippines
840 km (522 miles) ESE (123°) from MANILA, Philippines
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 10.8 km (6.7 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST= 21, Nph= 21, Dmin=423.4 km, Rmss=0.8 sec, Gp=137°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=Q
Source U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Magnitude 5.6 earthquake near Davao
Magnitude 5.6
Date-Time Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 06:21:46 UTC
Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 02:21:46 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 7.115°N, 126.606°E
Depth 110.2 km (68.5 miles)
Region MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
Distances 105 km (65 miles) E of Davao, Mindanao, Philippines
140 km (85 miles) SSE of Hinatuan, Mindanao, Philippines
190 km (120 miles) NE of General Santos, Mindanao, Philippines
1035 km (640 miles) SE of MANILA, Philippines
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 10.1 km (6.3 miles); depth +/- 13.6 km (8.5 miles)
Parameters NST= 44, Nph= 44, Dmin=113.6 km, Rmss=1.05 sec, Gp=115°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Date-Time Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 06:21:46 UTC
Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 02:21:46 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 7.115°N, 126.606°E
Depth 110.2 km (68.5 miles)
Region MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
Distances 105 km (65 miles) E of Davao, Mindanao, Philippines
140 km (85 miles) SSE of Hinatuan, Mindanao, Philippines
190 km (120 miles) NE of General Santos, Mindanao, Philippines
1035 km (640 miles) SE of MANILA, Philippines
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 10.1 km (6.3 miles); depth +/- 13.6 km (8.5 miles)
Parameters NST= 44, Nph= 44, Dmin=113.6 km, Rmss=1.05 sec, Gp=115°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
JTWC Warning #1 for Tropical Depression 24W (Tino)
WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022151ZNOV09//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.5N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 12.8N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 12.6N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 123.6E.TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (TWENTY FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO WANE AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED. ADDITIONALLY, THE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING MORE EXPOSED AND IS DRIFTING SOUTH WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE COMING OFF THE ASIAN LAND MASS. DESPITE THE DECREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION, AN AMBUIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE 021004Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A DISCERNABLE LLCC WITH 25- TO 30-KNOT WINDS AND
A 021333Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES WARNING-LEVEL WINDS STARTING TO WRAP
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. OF NOTE, THE QUIKSCAT PASS
ALSO INDICATES STRONG WINDS (40 TO 50 KNOTS) AND HIGHER SEAS (23
FEET) NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE.
TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER LUZON
BEFORE DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 012151ZNOV09
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 012200). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
PAG-ASA Bulletin #3 TINO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "TINO"
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Tuesday, 03 November 2009
Tropical Depression "TINO" has maintained its strength as it moves closer to Central Luzon.
Location of Center:(as of 4:00 a.m.) 150 kms East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 17.0°N, 123.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near center
Movement: West Southwest at 11 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Wednesday morning:
in the vicinity of Baguio City
Thursday morning:
200 kms West of Dagupan City
Friday morning:
460 kms West Southwest of Dagupan City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Mt Province
Ifugao
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
La Union
Pangasinan
Nueva Ecija
Aurora
Public storm warning signals elsewhere now lowered.
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
The rest of Northern Luzon will have occasional rains and gusty winds due to the surge of the northeast monsoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Monday, November 02, 2009
Personal Notes on Tino
Tropical depression Tino came right after Santi (No pun intended. Santi -Tino). Pag-asa has already elevated this to tropical depression status and has already issued 2 bulletins. Other international weather agencies however have yet to issue their own bulletins. JTWC is only issuing a tropical cyclone formation alert (which i have posted here). The area where this is located at the moment is not conducive to the development of typhoons. More likely, Tino will have a burst of strength for a brief period of time but will immediately die down. One thing for sure though, Tino will bring rain along its path and therefore residents in danger of flooding and landslide should continue monitoring Tino's development.
Note: The blogger is not a professional meteorologist. For official analysis, please check Pag-asa advisories.
PAG-ASA Bulletin #2 TINO
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "TINO"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Monday, 02 November 2009
Tropical Depression "TINO" has maintained its strength as it moves towards Northern Luzon.
Location of Center:(as of 10:00 p.m.) 200 kms East of Tuguegarao City
Coordinates: 17.3°N, 123.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near center
Movement: West at 11 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday evening:
90 kms East Southeast of Vigan City
Wednesday evening:
170 kms West of Vigan City
Thursday evening:
460 kms West Northwest of Baguio City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 1(30-60 kph winds)
Batanes group
Cagayan
Babuyan
Calayan islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Isabela
Quirino
Northern Aurora
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.
However, the rest of Northern Luzon will have occasional rains and gusty winds due to the surge of the Northeast monsoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
JTWC Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
WTPN21 PGTW 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 127.2E TO 19.0N 122.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 012030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 126.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 17.8N 126.3E, APPROXIMATELY360 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS PERSISTED OVER THEPAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC HAS BEENFUELING THE RECENT INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 011215Z ASCAT PASSSHOWED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC WERE BEINGENHANCED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE EAST CHINA SEA (ECS) ANDWERE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLYFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE DECREASING AS THE LLCC TRACKS TOTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 28 CELSIUS WITHIN THENEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY HELPTO SPIN THE SYSTEM UP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE LLCCMOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. THE INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEASTERLYCOLD SURGE OCCURRING OVER THE ECS WILL MAKE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALQUESTIONABLE IN THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER IN THE SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE. BASED ON INCREASING LLCC ORGANIZATION, FAVORABLE UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST VALUES, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022200Z.//
NNNN
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